SpeculatIon rIFe In cHennaI on sImultaneous polls
There is a strong buzz in Chennai’s political circles that the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections that are not due for another three years, may be held with the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
It is being said that with a nudge from the Centre (read BJP) the ruling “indebted” AIADMK may dissolve the state Assembly early next year and go for simultaneous polls. The BJP is desperate to make an entry in this important southern state and is actively fishing in troubled waters.
A lot of political churning is taking place in Tamil Nadu. While the ruling AIADMK is divided, the DMK’s new head, is trying to find his moorings. Two popular film actors, Rajinikanth and Kamal Haasan are attempting to plunge themselves into electoral politics.
The BJP is playing a high stakes game. Then there is T.T.V. Dinakaran, nephew of jailed politician V.K. Sasikala (the closest aide of late Jayalalithaa), also in the picture. By winning in the bypolls held for the prestigious R.K. Nagar Assembly seat last year with an impressive margin, he had rattled the AIADMK and the BJP.
The general perception is that the BJP is a “trustworthy friend” of the AIADMK. But, according to reliable sources, the BJP’s top commanders are not happy with the way sharp divisions continue to exist in the state’s ruling party. The BJP is going to gamble more on Rajinikanth’s popularity.
The BJP may nudge the AIADMK to dissolve the Assembly at the beginning of 2019 and force the state to go for elections along with the Lok Sabha polls. The BJP is not ready to wait till 2021. The party feels that it stands a better chance to exploit the situation during simultaneous polls in Tamil Nadu.
There is a “Plan B” also. Without coming out in the open, the BJP is planning to fully support Rajinikanth in every manner, and if he manages to secure a good number of Assembly seats, he can be strengthened further by attracting winning MLAs from the AIADMK and the DMK to grab power. The BJP may find it difficult to open its account, but an ally in Rajinikanth can be a valuable support for grabbing power at the Centre. The problem is that no Tamil Nadu party wishes to be seen having an open alliance with the BJP.
Meanwhile, the BJP is worried that an alliance between the DMK and the Congress can overturn its applecart. But the two old allies are still not on the same page.