A few hours of ‘political drama’ changed political landscape of J&K
Hectic behind-the-scenes parleys between Mehbooba Mufti, Omar Abdullah and state Congress chief Ghulam Ahmed Mir were being closely watched by the “rebel groups” in People’s Democratic Party ( PDP) and National Conference (NC). Sensing trouble, Mehbooba hurriedly wrote a letter to Governor Satya Pal Malik staking claim to form government. However, the rival group led by Sajad Gani Lone with support of BJP also staked claim to form government at the same time. Within a few hours of the two claims made, the Governor decided to dissolve the Assembly, triggering mixed reactions.
PDP, NC and Congress seem more than happy now that the House has been dissolved and they have been able to torpedo months of “hard work” done by Lone and Ram Madhav, BJP’s point-man in J&K, to garner the support of NC and PDP rebels. While the PDP was on the verge of a split with its senior-most leader and MP from Baramulla, Muzaffar Husain Beigh not only opposed to the new alliance emerging between NC, PDP and Congress, but openly supported Lone for his efforts to make a third front in Kashmir before fresh elections.
Unfazed by the criticism for dissolving the Assembly, Malik said that it would not have been prudent to encourage “horse-trading” and allow a government to be formed through defections. The dissolution of the House triggered a Twitter war between Abdullah and Madhav. While BJP and Madhav accused NC, PDP and Congress of acting at the behest of ISI and Pakistan, Omar asked them to prove the charges or apologise.
Abdullah has said that he is ready for fresh Assembly elections and ruled out any pre-poll alliance either with Congress or PDP and said that he would try to get a decisive mandate to form government this time. Abdullah also asked the Governor to make the charges public as who was doing the horsetrading and from where the money had come for such an unholy alliance.
While the Election Commission has indicated that they would go for preparations to hold polls in the state and has indicated that the elections would be held before the month of May 2019, NC is more than happy as they feel that they would be the gainers in all the three regions of the state.
In Ladakh region, as reported in this newspaper earlier, the local BJP MP has resigned and most of the party leaders there feel that they have been “cheated” by their central leadership. Congress has already gained lots of ground in the region after the revolt of many BJP leaders against the party high command.
In Jammu region, BJP has been accused of not being able to fulfill its poll promises. Abdullah told the media that it would be difficult for the BJP to explain to the people of Jammu that why with 25 MLAs, they were supporting a two-member party of Sajad Lone in Kashmir to form the government.
Sources close to PDP and NC told The Sunday Guardian that both the parties have decided to help each other in the “weak” Assembly segments and have kept all options open for a post-poll alliance. A senior PDP leader claimed, “We have already given jitters to BJP and their cronies in Kashmir. We will form the next government in alliance if none of us will get the majority.”
The failure of government formation has already polarised the state and the Jammu region is feeling the heat that they would no longer be the kingmakers in the next round of government formation after the fresh elections. With NC and PDP on the path of new bonhomie, and with both trying to get all the seats in Kashmir valley and in the sub-regions of Jammu and Ladakh, BJP and its new faces in the Valley have really tough times ahead, feel political observers here. A shrinking National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has become a matter of concern for the ruling BJP and the party leadership is likely to start working to stitch alliances at the regional level in order to blunt the Opposition unity, after the ongoing Assembly elections, in the run up to 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
What is worrying for the party is the fact that while many NDA partners have deserted the alliance ever since it formed government at the Centre in 2014, some more are either on the verge of leaving it or are having strained relations with it. Among the allies, Shiv Sena has the highest number of MPs (18) in the Lok Sabha after BJP, followed by Lok Janshakti Party (6). Sources said much will depend on the outcome of the ongoing Assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh,