Why US sanctions on Iran will fail

A few years ago I called into Khasab, a port city on northern Oman’s Musandam Peninsula. My boat was berthed on a finger jetty in Khasab port, from which I witnessed the most remarkable sight. The harbour was full of dhows being loaded to the gunwales with large packages heading across the Strait of Hormuz, just 21 nautical miles at its narrowest. Those queuing to get into the harbour were passed by those accelerating out, to get their cargo to the Iranian mainland as quickly as possible. The scene resembled a huge conveyer belt.

I returned to the same jetty last year and the harbour was quiet and serene.

Why the difference? On my first visit, heavy UN sanctions on Iran were in place due to its refusal to suspend its uranium enrichment programme. Following the successful meeting in Lausanne in April 2015 of the five UN permanent members and Germany with Iran, which resulted in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action ( JCPOA), these sanctions were lifted in exchange for limits on Iran’s nuclear programme for at least 10 years from January 2016. There was now no need for the Khasab conveyer belt and its harbour became again the focal point for tourist boats.

Sanction evasion is in the DNA of the Iranian regime. From its birth in 1979, there have been no less than 35 rounds of sanctions, giving the regime plenty of practice in evasion. Sanctions can work when there is strong mutual interest, as shown by the JCPOA. Enshrined in international law, the JCPOA has been hugely successful and remains today, notwithstanding the unilateral withdrawal by the US. Iran is meeting its obligations in full, as verified by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

To the dismay of the rest of the world, having ratted on the US side of the bargain, President Donald Trump has now resorted to bullyboy tactics in an attempt to destroy the JCPOA altogether. He is spraying secondary sanctions on all countries and organisations who continue to deal with Iran.

Trump appears to be completely unaware that his action has allowed Iran to occupy the moral high ground. Iranian diplomats are claiming that it’s the US which is the wrecking ball, proof they say that the US cannot be trusted. So what next? As the Economist reported earlier this year, “by pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal, President Donald Trump is counting on renegotiation or regime change. He is more likely to end up with war.”

“I’m ready willing and able to negotiate a new Iranian deal”, said Trump, to which Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani retorted last week, “Negotiate for what? First you respect the negotiations we already concluded, so that there are grounds for the next negotiations.” He added, “We are in a situation of economic war, confronting a bullying power. I don’t think that in the history of America, someone has entered the White House who is so against law and international conventions.” Ouch!

So, if there are to be no negotiations leading to a change of behaviour in Tehran, what about regime change? Although denied by the White House, Trump’s real bet is that sanctions will bring about economic agonies and topple the regime. This will not happen as Trump completely fails to understand the nature of the Iranian regime. He largely ignores his professional diplomats, preferring to develop his foreign policy, if it can be called that, on what he sees on Fox News.

Iran is an unusual country because there are effectively two parallel governments. The official government is that led by President Rouhani and the Majlis ( Parliament). The unofficial government is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps ( IRGC), led by the tough Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari. Numbering about 130,000 military personnel, the IRGC was established by Ayatollah Khomeini in 1979 as an ideologically driven militia, which acts as the Guardian of the Islamic Revolution. Over the years it has assumed a greater role in nearly every aspect of Iranian society, acting as an effective suppressor of protest. Because of this there is no opposition party, so if you want regime change, what do you change to? Trump is in danger of repeating the horrendous mistake of President Bush in 2003, who also assumed an opposition party would take over in Iraq after Saddam Hussein.

Iranian society will certainly suffer as a result of the in- creased sanctions and there could be street protests as a result, but these will be kept under control by the IRGC. The EU is trying to keep the JCPOA alive by developing a payment system based on the euro. China, itself under US trade sanctions, is developing ways of trading Iranian oil in a secondary market, perhaps bringing forward the day that it clears global payment in yuan.

Iran will hunker down and manage sanctions as it has done for most of its 40-year existence. The Khasab conveyer belt will restart and sanction evasion will evolve further. US sanctions will fail. However, it would be a huge mistake by Iran if it restarted its centrifuges. Not only would it lose the moral high-ground, but it would play into the hands of the US National Security Advisor John (bomb Iran) Bolton, Saudi Arabia and Israel. The world would become an extremely dangerous place, although this would certainly distract attention from the Mueller enquiry in Washington. Now there’s a thought! Could this be Trump’s real game plan, or am I being too cynical? External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj’s surprise declaration that she would not be contesting the Parliamentary elections in 2019 has triggered speculation regarding her future. Although she has ruled out quitting active politics and therefore does not appear averse to entering the Rajya Sabha, yet for the BJP’s best known woman leader to bid goodbye to electoral politics, in the middle of a poll campaign, raises many questions. Swaraj, who is a sitting Lok Sabha member from Vidisha in Madhya Pradesh, either believes that she does not have sufficient energy to contest a poll, given her recent kidney transplant or is unsure about her party’s chances in the Assembly polls, for which campaigning is on in full swing. A seasoned politician like her would never make a move that is not carefully calibrated, unless she is aware of what lies ahead for her.

Swaraj has been amongst the most accomplished leaders from the BJP and has always heeded to the wishes of her party. Therefore, her unilateral announcement regarding her decision not to contest the Lok Sabha polls, was both uncharacteristic and somewhat out of place. Groomed in politics for greater things, by Lal Krishna Advani, she is viewed as not only his acolyte, but also a person he continues to trust despite being in political wilderness.

In fact, after Advani was unable to lead the BJP to victory in the 2009 Parliamentary elections, he had handpicked her to replace him as the Leader of the Opposition in Lok Sabha. Similarly, he had chosen Arun Jaitley to lead the opposition charge in the Upper House, while he retained his position as the Chairman of the Parliamentary party. Since Indian parliamentary democracy is inspired by the Westminster model, the Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha, as in the House of Commons, is essentially a shadow Prime Minister and it was in this light that many of her admirers thought of her, convinced that she, one day might become the country’s head of government.

It is obvious that Swaraj’s projection received a serious setback when the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh’s top brass made the decision in 2013 itself to supersede all existing central BJP leaders and instead declared Narendra Modi as the party’s Prime Ministerial nominee. Modi not only justified the trust reposed in him by the RSS, but led the BJP for the first time to its most spectacular victory, winning 282 seats, a hundred more than what the party could secure under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1998 and 1999 elections.

With Modi at the helm of affairs, the equations within the BJP and the Sangh Parivar underwent many changes. The power centre shifted from Advani to Modi, and to current BJP president, Amit Shah, his trusted lieutenant. In other words, the writing was on the wall that thereafter the new regime would be taking crucial decisions.

Swaraj managed to retain her aura due to her personal popularity and strong appeal, and was appointed the External Affairs Minister in the Modi Cabinet. It is another matter that commencing from the UPA era, when Dr Manmohan Singh was the Prime Minister, all major foreign policy initiatives and decisions continue to be formulated and taken by the Prime Minister’s Office. Modi, like his other colleagues, has always been fully aware of Swaraj’s extraordinary oratory skills and has often fielded her to defend India’s position at premier international platforms such as the United Nations. And in this sphere, she has made the country immensely proud.

Swaraj’s Lok Sabha retirement plans appear to have concretised after the BJP began its preparations for the 2019 Parliamentary elections. She had been unable to travel to her predominantly rural constituency due to poor health as she was not able to cope with the scorching heat and the consequent dust storm. Interestingly so, one month back, posters had been put up in her constituency, declaring her missing.

It is evident that the perceptive leader understood the ground realities, and as a consequence considered it unwise to once more throw her hat in the ring. Another factor that could have concerned her might have been the Modi-Shah formula of changing at least 40% of legislators in every election, so as to thwart anti incumbency. Thus she must have thought that there was little point in taking chances in this uncertain game and securing a Rajya Sabha berth at a later date would at least keep her politically alive.

Needless to say that over her 40 odd years in politics, Swaraj has carved a niche for herself. Coaxed by the RSS, the BJP decided to field her against Sonia Gandhi from Bellary in the 1999 elections. Though she lost, after stating that she would tonsure her head if in the event Sonia won, she subsequently struck a close personal bond with the Congress president.

Swaraj also became the victim of internal BJP politics, when the late Pramod Mahajan wanted to relieve her from the Union Telecom Minister’s position, and convinced Advani to appoint her as Delhi’s Chief Minister, to prevent the feud between Madan Lal Khurana and Sahib Singh Verma from escalating.

It is true that she could not become the Prime Minister, but the fact of the matter is that many other stalwarts, who were Leaders of Opposition in the Lok Sabha, could not be elevated to this august office either. Over the years, Swaraj’s well-articulated interventions have made an indelible mark. Between us.