Testing times AHEAD for orphaned dravidian parties
The role of newcomers adds suspense to the political drama in Tamil Nadu.
In the absence of two stalwarts, J. Jayalalithaa and M. Karunanidhi, the 2019 general elections in Tamil Nadu may not be a blockbuster, but it definitely promises to be a thriller with new stars, given a chance, adding their bit. Till a few weeks ago, the general impression was that M.K. Stalin and his Dmkcongress alliance would have it easy, especially with Amma not around. But the ruling AIADMK sprang a surprise—its alliance with the BJP was a foregone conclusion—by sewing a tie-up with the unpredictable Anbumani Ramadoss and his Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK). This has, for all practical purposes, changed the political equations in the southern state. The PMK is arguably the largest caste-based political party in the state, with its strong support base among the backward Vanniyars in north Tamil Nadu. Even those who oppose BJP in AIADMK feel that the alliance with PMK would offset all disadvantages it has by joining the NDA. The only problem is that the Ramadoss’ reputation in state politics is one that of a chameleon. Anbumani’s father, S. Ramadoss had started the party in 1989, with the sole motto of overthrowing the Dravidian parties from power. By 1998, he was with Jayalalithaa and the very next year with Karunanidhi. In 2014, he was part of the rainbow coalition of BJP, Captain Vijayakanth’s Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) and Vaiko’s (V. Gopalasamy) Marumalrchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK). This time too PMK had bargained hard with both DMK and AIADMK, finally settling for the latter with seven Lok Sabha and one Rajya Sabha seats. While Vijayakanth is playing truant, it is almost certain that Vaiko will join hands with DMK. In 2014, AIADMK under Amma had swept 37 of the 39 seats in the state. Only Dharmapuri went to Anbumani and Kanyakumari to Pon Radhakrishnan of the BJP.
If the AIADMK-BJP alliance is hoping to bridge the caste gap through PMK, the DMK and Congress, with the support of Left and other small parties will be trying to consolidate Dalit, Muslim and Christian votes. If they can rope in Vijayakanth, it will add to their strength, though the actor-turned-politician had been decimated by Jayalalithaa in the last Assembly elections. He is yet to recover from the drubbing—though can’t be brushed aside as he wields 5.1% vote share—and has handed over the party to wife Premalatha Alagarswami. Elected treasurer, Premalatha now runs the party in the absence of Vijayakanth and is said to be a tough negotiator. She is keeping both fronts guessing. Still as is BJP with AIADMK, Congress will be DMK’S liability. Congress, which fought the last Lok Sabha elections alone, had forfeited deposit money in all but one seat. DMK, on the other hand, has not won a Parliament seat since 2009. But there are many things in its favour, anti-incumbency and the absence of Jayalalithaa foremost among them. There has been no government ever since the death of Amma in December 2016. Add to this the Central government’s open interference in the functioning of the state government. There is a general perception that Chief Minister E. Palaniswamy and company had succumbed to BJP pressure tactics, especially the threatened use of CBI. Stalin will take maximum mileage out of this. Rural areas, once the strongholds of AIADMK, may not go with the party this time. Hundreds of farmers have committed suicide. Remember, farmers from the state had been agitating in the national capital for months, with no one from the Centre or AIADMK taking up their cause. Stalin is already on a tour of the rural areas, focusing on drought and the fallout of demonetisation in the farm sector. Early birds may catch the farmers’ attention since there is no Amma to come to their rescue.
What adds suspense to the political drama unfolding in Tamil Nadu is the role of newcomers. It is difficult to count T.T.V. Dinakaran, nephew of the late Jayalalithaa’s trusted companion Sasikala, who is spending time in jail for crimes committed together, as one among the new players. It is almost a year since Dinakaran launched his Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK). Before that he had won the RK Nagar Assembly byelection, which fell vacant due to Jayalalithaa’s untimely death. He is staking claim as the genuine heir to Amma’s legacy and is attacking both DMK and AIADMK for what he says betrayal of Tamils; DMK for letting down Lankan Tamils and AIADMK for being subservient to the BJP. Dinakaran has announced plans to contest all 39 Lok Sabha seats alone. Tamil Nadu may simultaneously go for byelections to 21 Assembly constituencies, with 18 MLAS disqualified for joining Dinakaran. Political observers do not give much chance to Dinakaran, other than being a spoiler, but he is capable of springing surprises. He has a huge moneybag at his disposal, which is vital to any election in Tamil Nadu. The magic of Amma still works and if he can sway the masses in her name, there will be nothing like that. As for real actors with political ambitions such as Kamal Haasan and superstar Rajinikanth, less said the better. They still remain on the periphery, waiting for a role to play in either of the two established production units. It will take some more time for that to happen.