Symbolism triumphed at Modi-xi summit
Sino-indian engagement will be crucial, mandatory requirement for making 21st century an Asian century.
The atmospherics set at Mamallapuram for the Modi-xi summit in the spirit of Wuhan demonstrated the willingness from both sides to share perceptions on a number of pertinent issues impacting Sino-india relations. There is certainly a new beginning in realising that Sino-indian engagement will be crucial and mandatory requirement for making the 21st century an Asian century. If the centre of gravity has been shifting from the West to the East then both India and China together will have to shoulder the responsibility to lead the world’s affairs. There is no denying the fact that huge potential exists in this emerging Sino-indian bonhomie. The very fact that President Xi Jinping visited India with a 90-member delegation reflects their seriousness in improving the prevailing perceptions and moving ahead in forging a positive and constructive partnership. The rest of the world in general and the United States in particular have been keenly watching these emerging Sino-indian equations.
Despite having a number of differences in Sino-indian approaches to regional and global issues, the Modi-xi summit obviously makes a modest attempt to prioritise their interests in a manner which would allow them to converge and also find ways and mechanism to bridge the existing differences. Does China understand India’s predicament or vice-versa in the emerging global order? This remains a major part of the discourse. The tangibles in the form of real outcomes from this Modi-xi summit on a number of contentious matters would be too early to be achieved. But the process and machinery set up from this interaction will keep Indiachina in a communication mode where the chances of having any misunderstanding on bilateral issues will be very low.
The divergences in Sinoindian relations are well known. These are mainly relating to border issues and the consensus on the definition of Line of Actual Control (LAC), China-pakistan nexus and horizontal proliferation, China’s policy of encirclement of India, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and China-pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), China’s perception of various terrorist and terrorist groups, India’s membership of the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG), China’s claims on Arunachal Pradesh and showing it on their map as a part of China, China’s increasing footprints in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and complete claims of South China Sea. China’s building of ports and military bases are also a major source of concern for India. Constant skirmishes along the Sinoindian border are being witnessed and there are chances of a crisis escalating. The Doklam standoff is a case in point. It, somehow, got de-escalated but does not guarantee not having eruptions of such crises again. India is a nuclear weapons state for all practical purposes but China does not regard India to be a nuclear weapons state because of the definition of nuclear weapons state mentioned in the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT). NPT has articulated that those countries which have gone nuclear prior to 1 January 1967 are only called nuclear weapon states.
With these many existing contradictions, will it be possible to give a surprise to the world by resolving all the differences in Sinoindian relations by having these summits? What is mostly required right now is to build mutual trust. Every nation will be guided by their national interest and their domestic imperatives. China itself is being plagued by a number of domestic challenges including the Uyghur uprising and the ongoing protests in Hong Kong.
India’s expectations from China seem to be far too many when it comes to resolving differences. Even China’s commitment to strengthen confidence building measures (CBMS) and adhere strictly to the stipulations made in CBMS with India would be a significant outcome of Mamallapuram. This will certainly help in ensuring peace and tranquillity in the India-china border regions. The bilateral discussions were very meaningful mainly in the context of building convergences on the matters relating to terrorism, Indo-pacific security architecture, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), trade deficits and also intensifying people to people contacts.
It will not be that easy to change China’s perceptions on various issues impacting India. China showed complete displeasure on India’s abrogation of Article 370 and the open support to Pakistan on this issue was reflected. It may be because of the lack of knowledge of a temporary provision like Article 370 of the Indian Constitution. Prime Minister Modi must have explained this to President Xi during their discussions to dispel his doubts.
Geopolitical environment is in a flux. Under this scenario such a summit gains salience because it provides an opportunity to discuss not only bilateral issues but also regional and global issues for finding a solution for peace and stability.
Has China assured India that it will remain conscious of the security threats to India and will refrain from doing anything that will hurt New Delhi’s security calculations?
China has its own strategic agenda in the region like using Pakistan and the CPEC to seek an entry into te Indian Ocean. This allows China to develop economically viable sea routes to the resource rich Africa and Central Asia. India has strongly and very legitimately protested the use of Indian territory, illegally occupied by Pakistan and part of it ceded to China, for the CPEC as part of BRI. India must have made it clear to China on its position on CPEC.
The second round of meeting between the Special Representatives (SR) on the border issue has been postponed indefinitely and is due to be held anytime now after this informal summit. While initially China was not keen to solve the border issue, it now appears that Beijing wants to hurry through the matter but India is showing some reservations. New Delhi will have to make it clear that any resolution of the border dispute will have to take into considerations India’s legitimate claims on areas under illegal Pakistani occupation. On its part China has made it clear that all issues between India and Pakistan have to be resolved bilaterally. Yet China will have to go the extra mile to ensure that it keeps away from these bilateral issues, in the region as well as in global forums.
From Wuhan to Mamallapuram, both leaders have consolidated their political hold over their respective people and strengthened the decision making process. It is important for them to put in place a mechanism that will ensure normalcy in relations leading to greater business opportunities without having to compromise on core national interests. The culmination of intangible to tangible will take its own course. Nevertheless, symbolism has triumphed and the objectives of such an informal summit seem to have been realised by sharing each other’s perceptions.
Professor Arvind Kumar teaches Geopolitics and International Relations at Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal. Seshadri Chari is a political commentator and strategic analyst.