An exit strategy from this nightmare

Two British academics propose a highly controlled return to normality by allowing a gradual increase of economic activity, while keeping the virus reproduction rate to less than 1.

Nearly 60 years ago, President John F. Kennedy uttered some wise words prescient for today. Justifying his strong reaction to the nuclear threat to his country by the impending Soviet installation of ballistic missiles on Cuban territory, he said, “There are risks and costs to action. But they are far less than the long-term risks of comfortable inaction.” By his early successful confrontation with the Soviet Union, itself a risky move, Kennedy prevented the long-term costly and greater risks of having enemy missiles installed just 90 miles from Florida. The lesson was clear; acting early against a threat is less risky and more effective than vacillation. The US is again under threat, this time from an invisible enemy. If only the current US President were as wise as JFK and had acted early against Covid-19.

There have been numerous reports that President Donald Trump ignored advice from the US intelligence agencies. As early as January many warned him of the scale and intensity of the coronavirus outbreak in China and the imminent threat to the United States. Last week, the Washington Post cited a US official, familiar with intelligence agency warnings, who said, “Donald Trump may not have been expecting this, but a lot of other people in the government were. They just couldn’t get him to do anything about it.” Instead, tweeting on 24 February,

Trump declared that “the coronavirus is very much under control in the USA”, a statement clearly economical with the truth. Trump’s “comfortable inaction” has caused the unnecessary deaths of many innocent Americans. As Microsoft’s co-founder, Bill Gates said in a recent broadcast: “We didn’t act fast enough to have an ability to avoid very many deaths and a hugely economically damaging shutdown.”

It’s America’s misfortune that President Trump initially focused entirely on the coronavirus economic crisis, selfishly focusing on his re-election chances later this year, rather than the coronavirus health crisis. It was only when he realised that the latter was beginning to also affect his prospects, did he pay any attention to it, claiming on 17 March, “I’ve always known this is a pandemic. I’ve felt this was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.” Really?

The speed of the transmission of the highly infectious coronavirus has caused policymakers a real headache. It has been calculated that the virus reproduction rate (RR), the number of people on average that a single infected person will contaminate, is somewhere between 2 and 3.5. This is why we have seen an exponential growth in infection once the virus enters a community. The other feature of the virus is that it takes five days or so before a person knows he or she has it, during which time the infected person is contaminating others, potentially increasing the spread. As there is currently no vaccination against coronavirus, the only way to stop the spread of infection is isolation or lockdown of a community. There is no other way. So what starts as a health crisis now quickly becomes an economic crisis, as most business depends on close human interaction.

Just as you can eliminate road deaths by banning all traffic from the roads, so you can stop the virus by a complete lockdown for as long as it takes. Probably very many months. The problem here is that this extreme measure would destroy economic activity, dramatically increasing poverty and consequently causing more deaths as a result in the long term. Most countries are trying some form of compromise by either a partial lockdown over a long period of time, or a total lockdown over a few weeks. The aim is to reduce the RR to less than 1, in which case the virus will gradually die out. This compromise, it is hoped, will also protect the economy from free-fall.

In Britain, the government has decided on a partial lockdown over a rolling three-week period, allowing essential economic activity when coupled with social distancing of 2m. Even this has a serious economic implication, as it’s estimated to be costing the British economy a whopping £2.4 billion a day. With millions of workers under orders to stay at home, the country’s output has been slashed by 31%. Manufacturers, shops, restaurants, hotels and builders have been the hardest hit because, unlike financial services for example, staff cannot do their jobs remotely. This dilemma is facing all governments around the world. If you reduce lockdown in order to increase economic activity you will increase infection rates, possibly overwhelming health services. If you stiffen lockdown in order to reduce infection rates, you are likely to cause lasting economic damage.

So how can countries get out of this seemingly impossible nightmarish dilemma? A paper published this week by two British academics, Professors Gerard Lyons and Paul Ormerod, suggests a possible solution. The authors propose a highly controlled return to normality by allowing a gradual increase of economic activity, while keeping the RR less than 1 in order to prevent successive waves of the pandemic. Noting that the vast majority of people are currently extremely cautious about moving within the community, Lyons and Ormerod propose a traffic-light system to control the economic build-up, emulating the way traffic is controlled on our roads.

Here’s how it would work. The first phase would be deliberately called red, to ensure people stopped to think before they did things. A percentage of shops could open, but they would have to exercise strict social distancing, as most supermarkets do now. Travel would still be discouraged and most international flights banned.

After a period in the red phase and provided no new phase of the pandemic erupts, the country would move to an amber state. Now there can be limited car journeys or travel on public transport, provided passengers wore masks and disposable gloves. Rushhours in cities would have to be staggered, with varied opening and closing times. Restaurants could reopen, provided they maintained social distancing.

The final phase, the green state, could be introduced once the country has passed successfully through the amber state with no outbreak of the virus. Mass gatherings and sporting events can now take place. Places of worship can reopen and mass transport could return to normal. Constant vigilance would be required in this phase as a single infected person could start the process over again. A reversion to a former state must be considered if this happens.

Throughout the whole process governments would have to provide cash resources to its citizens in order to maintain some form of demand, thus leading to an increase of supply.

This virtuous economic circle would then lead to a normalisation of economic activity.

Some form of lockdown has been adopted by many countries and this simple traffic-light model as an exit strategy could work if it is rigorously applied. Implanted in everyone’s mind would be “red”, “amber” and “green”, and everyone would know what is permissible at the time. Unquestionably, “Covid cops” would be needed to ensure compliance by those flouting the rules, and something equivalent to speeding tickets would be necessary “pour encourager les autres”. Testing for the coronavirus will also be essential throughout the whole process in order for the policy makers to judge progress.

Until the vast majority of the world’s population had been vaccinated, every country will need to employ constant vigilance. This nasty virus has a habit of popping up time and time again. Last Wednesday, only days after China had declared no new cases, it suddenly had to close its entire 2,672-mile-long land border with Russia and put the city of Suifenhe in the northernmost Heilongjiang province into complete lockdown after it experienced a surge of imported coronavirus cases. Singapore has recorded just six deaths, but a second wave of 287 coronavirus cases was reported on Thursday, mostly among migrant workers housed in crowded dormitories. The city-state has now started a new month-long lockdown, enforceable by heavy fines and jail time. “We will now also disallow social gatherings of any size in both public and private spaces”, Health Minister Gan Kim Yong told Parliament.

Countries around the globe are grappling with the complex logistics of when and how to loosen lockdown restrictions to allow economies to recover, while also avoiding recurrent outbreaks. The “traffic light” system will help, but it’s going to be a very long summer.

John Dobson is a former British diplomat and worked in UK Prime Minister John Major’s Office between 1995 and 1998.