Indo-sino relations at the crossroads
between us
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s unannounced visit to the forward areas in Ladakh has sent multiple messages, both internationally as well as on the domestic front. Modi’s meeting with the soldiers and officers, not too far away from the vicinity of the Galwan Valley—the theatre of the latest Indo-sino discord—was aimed at communicating to the Chinese that India was by no means going to tolerate their expansionist adventures, and would with all its might, defend and repulse any incursions into its territory.
The clear warning by the Prime Minister to China from the battleground shows India’s hard-hitting intention, while drawing the attention of several other countries in the region, who are facing similar problems vis-à-vis the Chinese. In other words, Modi has taken the lead, so as to become the rallying point for any anti-china front that could be forged by the affected countries, including Japan, Vietnam, Malaysia and Taiwan.
The PM’S aggressive speech, did not mention China by name, yet made it abundantly explicit as to what was meant when he spoke of expansionism. Instead, he stressed on the need to pursue the development agenda. Although Modi in his characteristic style, also used the opportunity of identifying himself with his strong constituency, which shares his belief in nationalism, while concurrently signalling that there was little scope for de-escalation unless the Chinese post-haste pulled out from areas which did not belong to them.
His presence in Ladakh meant that the situation was far more serious than what it was thought to be, and the time had come to go in for concrete action, since diplomacy did not seem to be making any headway. Many foreign policy experts believe that India needs to take a firm and strident position for the Chinese to comprehend that they could not continue with their devious designs. Modi, precisely, has done so. His assertive stance in his address to the armed forces has conveyed India’s preparedness to face the enemy, and thereby it would be a folly to downplay its significance during this highly surcharged atmosphere.
Many analysts are of the opinion that the government should have displayed a similar response several weeks earlier, when the Chinese had intruded into our terrain in the Galwan Valley region, completely disputing the possession of areas belonging to India. However, though a little late, this reaction would meet its objective.
Many Sinologists are of the view that President Xi had moulded himself around Chairman Mao’s persona, and thus was a staunch supporter of the “power emanating from the barrel of the gun” doctrine. Just as Mao had in the late 1950s and 1960s diverted the attention of the masses from his failed experiments by intruding into the sovereign territory of Tibet and India, President Xi is adopting similar tactics. He is aware that several ambitious politicians in China are extremely peeved by his declaration of remaining their leader for life. Possibly, a bitter power struggle could be going on within the higher echelons of the Chinese establishment.
Indians have huge expectations from Modi, and he is probably trying to live up to them by his pronounced posturing in the proximity of the conflict zone. His critics have stated that the Prime Minister’s Ladakh Yatra was just for a photo opportunity and did not mean anything beyond that. They perceive that he was trying to shift the focus of the citizens from the massive mishandling that continues to take place regarding the Covid-19 situation, thus wanting the sole agenda to be on nationalism and internal security.
However, the timing of this critical appraisal of the Prime Minister does not seem to be correct since India could be on the verge of a full-scale war with our expansionist neighbour. At this hour, there is a need for displaying total unity. In this context, the Congress should follow other opposition parties, who have collectively decided to back the government on the China issue. Irresponsible statements are uncalled for and if the government falters, there would be ample opportunities to take it to task later.
Modi’s visit to the forward areas in place of Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, who was originally supposed to have been there on Friday, has also been open to interpretation in political circles. For many, it amounts to the downsizing of Rajnath Singh, who thus could subsequently lose the prestigious Defence portfolio, in the proposed Cabinet reshuffle, that is planned in the next few days. In fact, there has been much speculation that Amit Shah could replace him, with the Home Ministry being bifurcated, to separate the internal security division, as an independent entity altogether.
The Prime Minister must dispel rumours which suggest that when the conflict with the Chinese took place in mid-june, several key-functionaries in the Defence Ministry, who should have been in the loop, were not privy of the critical developments. This thesis seems to be utterly baseless, yet has been doing the rounds of political circles, and therefore requires a strong and robust rebuttal.
The pertinent point is that so far as the security, integrity and sovereignty of the country are concerned, the entire nation needs to stand as one, regardless of political differences. This has been the practice in the past as well. The government must ensure that while dealing with China, there should be no attempt to delink border disputes from trade and business. If China does not relent, it should be given a befitting reply, politically, militarily and economically. Between us.