PM MODI’S $5 TRILLION TARGET IS POSSIBLE

Perfection is an art impossible to achieve, and hence the need to examine each decision in the light of experience gleaned during the period of its implementation. The WHO first ignored the outbreak of the novel coronavirus at Wuhan. This was despite Taiwanese residents of that city reporting back to Taipei about the disease, its toxicity and spread in early January itself. Taiwan had that information despite the absence of longstanding links between the two sides of the strait that were snapped by the Chinese Communist Party after the DPP won the Presidential elections there and Dr Tsai Ing-wen took over from Ma Jing-jeou, who had vastly expanded links to China during his tenure in office. However, the WHO for reasons that remain unexpressed, has for years pretended that Taiwan does not exist, and ignored information coming from there, to the cost of the international community. After it was forced to acknowledge its mistake (some would say negligence), WHO kept on assuring the countries that depended on it for guidance that travel to and from China was safe, when even North Korea had halted travel between the PRC and itself. The next somersault of the WHO was to recommend not just a travel ban but a complete lockdown of countries. With the thoroughness that has characterised the Modi government, this recommendation was followed. From airlines to railways to road transport, every means of transportation was shut down, as were most of the nation’s activities. The Prime Minister, acting on the recommendation of experts, asked the people of India to undergo a period of sacrifice and discipline in order to prevent Covid-19 from ravaging the population the way diseases such as smallpox or cholera had in the past. Because of the immense credibility and respect that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has among the people, the 1.3 billion people of India obeyed his instructions. The inevitable consequence of the lockdown was a stoppage of activity, and there is yet to be an accounting of the jobs lost during the Great Indian Lockdown, surely the biggest such event in the history of the world. Only economic growth can create the additional jobs needed to feed and clothe the multiplying population of India. The flood of imports from China, several brought into the country through channels that deserve closer examination by the revenue authorities, has resulted in hundreds of thousands of small units shutting down, and even traditional artisans and craftsmen have suffered as a result of their wares not being able to compete with Chinese substitutes. It is important for the government to make clear that the vaguely (indeed confusingly) worded circular that placed additional checks on imports from “neighbouring” countries gets enforced in a manner that prevents dumping on a massive scale. By their intransigence on the border, the Chinese have made themselves less than welcome in India so far as their goods are concerned, and every effort needs to be made to locate indigenous enterprises that can replace Chinese imports. Tax and other policies should be designed in such a manner as to promote the expansion of industries and not seek to fleece them to the point where they become sick. After years of traditional budgets, what is needed is an innovative exercise that accepts the need for not penalising but rewarding the taxpayer. The tax terrorism and the arbitrary use of government discretion to favour or to cripple specific companies and individuals needs to be totally eliminated, and those responsible for misuse of authority need to be identified and proceeded against. There is no alternative to much higher rates of growth if India is to become the $5 trillion economy visualised by PM Modi. Rates of growth needed to achieve this were commonplace in China during the 1990s. If China could do it, India can do it better. Neither the pandemic nor the pandemonium of everyday politics should slow down the drive to ensure double digit growth, taking advantage of the transfer of supply chains from China.