Rajasthan crisis on a knife’s edge
between us
The mother of all pandemics notwithstanding, it is fairly obvious that China had put into place the plans to take on India quite some time ago. What is also becoming obvious with every passing day is that on the Indian side, despite having a plethora of intelligence agencies, the entire establishment has been caught not just napping, but are so badly compromised by their failure, they have no choice but to further cover up by creating more and more smoke in the hope their little empires do not sink. For those in the know, who have been warning that the rot is extremely deep, all they can do is despair at the state of affairs as the pigeons come home to roost.
Keep an eye on the developments in what is known as the “Central Sector” where initial though yet to be officially confirmed reports coming in suggest that the Chinese have increased their activity in the area opposite Chitkul in Kinnaur district of Himachal Pradesh. As the crow flies, this is not very far from Nelang, the border post north of Harsil in Uttarakhand. Even though the frontier in these areas is demarcated and the international boundaries are well defined, Xi Jinping seems intent on testing the Indians along the entire 3,500 km border. The scale of operations today is much larger, but the pattern being followed seems to be exactly the same as what the Chinese had done in the pre-1962 build up.
The Kargil War in 1999 was labelled as an “intelligence failure” and reams and reams were subsequently written on how so-and-so warned this one, and that one warned these ones, but those who mattered failed to join the dots until one fine morning, using Indian cement bought from Indian companies in Indian markets, Pakistani sangars and bunkers were ready and their occupants were ready to cock a snook at the Indian Army. A couple of months later after it was realised that the heights around Drass, Kargil and Batalik had indeed been occupied, with more than 500 officers and men killed on the Indian side, the surviving intruders mainly from the Northern Light Infantry, were forced to withdraw across the LOC. India rejoiced. It had won the limited war. We buried the Pakistani dead, returned their eight prisoners and appointed a committee to see what had gone wrong. The two words “intelligence failure” kept cropping up with regular frequency, there were some more debates, a few editorials lamenting the fact that the committee’s recommendations were not being implemented, and then it was life as usual.
Post-kargil there were strategic changes on the Indian side—an area that was earlier held by 121 Independent Brigade now became the responsibility of XIV Corps. The then Home Minister, who was also the deputy Prime Minister, L.K. Advani, headed a Cabinet Group of Ministers who investigated intelligence lapses during the Kargil War and on their recommendation a comprehensive reform of intelligence agencies was undertaken. Accordingly, the Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) was created and formally became operational in March 2002. The DIA was to henceforth coordinate with all the three intelligence wings of the Army, Air Force and Navy, and in one of those periodic nods given to “jointmanship” in the armed forces, the director general’s post was to be held in rotation between the three armed services. However, since its inception, owing to other reasons, it has only had DGS from the Army.
DIA, which directly came under the Ministry of Defence, was to coordinate further with the Intelligence Bureau (IB), the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), National Technical Research Organisation (NTRO), Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) and the National Investigation Agency (NIA). Small matter that in addition to these organisations, others involved in the business of gathering both internal and external intelligence include the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), which, apart from functioning as an investigating agency, also gathers intelligence and acts as a liaison with Interpol; the Aviation Research Centre (ARC) under whom come aerial surveillance and reconnaissance flights (PHOTINT), imagery intelligence (IMINT), and signals intelligence (SIGINT) operations; the Shimla-based All India Radio Monitoring Service (ATRMS); the Central Economic Intelligence Bureau (CEIB); and many, many more. If they were to be listed, it would make India not only sound like an extreme police state, it would seem even a mouse could not find a mate without a file being opened on it.
In this complex labyrinth, if we were to further get into who reports to who, which group is responsible for what, it would perhaps require a super computer to decipher the complex maze and even then you would only have part of the story. This huge mammoth network—incidentally, state governments have their own complex bodies—though undoubtedly “understaffed and over worked”, invariably fails to pick up tell-tale signs and like the police in Bollywood movies of yore, always is the last to arrive on the scene. On the western front, the sea-borne Mumbai attack was a classic case and now, across the high Himalayas, with all the eyes supposedly pouring over satellite images, maps, photos, the entire Chinese build-up in Ladakh was missed, or perhaps more accurately, not interpreted correctly. In this Alice in Wonderland scenario, what a pity there is no Queen of Hearts to declare “off with their heads”!
Far from it—the magical maze ensures there is actually very little responsibility, and as we move up the narrow funnel to the top, it becomes even more critical for those in power to coverup for their blunders. In a scenario where the “border management” is with the Ministry of Home—the Border Security Force (BSF) is responsible for the Pakistan and Bangladesh borders; the Indo Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) looks after China; the Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB) with 73 battalions looks after Nepal and Bhutan and the Assam Rifles is deployed in the Northeast where it keeps an eye on the Myanmar border as well without actually guarding it per se. Technically, all come under the operational command of the Army “when and if”, but it is common knowledge that all is not well in this marriage as well. Fortunately, the hairbrained proposal to merge the Assam Rifles, perhaps one of the best para-military organisations in the world, with the ITBP has been shelved for the time being. Given the way turf wars play out, it will be revived sooner or later yet again.
Maybe there are valid and straight forward answers to these questions if they are asked, but surely apart from the movement of three Chinese divisions for the purported high altitude exercises, someone, somewhere would have noticed the additional stocking up that was required to sustain these troops for a longer period of time. A back of the envelope calculation would suggest upward of 3 lakh tons of material just to create the infrastructure. And let us face it, unlike our boys in the paramilitary and even in the Army, who are often moved and expected to “fight with what they have”, the Chinese, be it their accommodation, vehicles, winter clothing etc., are not exactly following our standards when it comes to defining the “happiness quotient”.
Unfortunately, in covering up for this big failure, and combined with the need to always appear on top of the other side, transparency went out of the window, opening the doors for what the Chinese have also perfected—the weaponization of dissent. This cacophony of defence experts and defence analysts who took over the print media and the airwaves to demolish whatever little credibility the government had, was nothing new. In the pre-1962 build up, though thankfully television was not there, the Chinese had worked the media in a manner where a sizeable population of India was festooning the complex path of international diplomacy with land mines. Nehru’s comment “that we shall throw the Chinese out” at the airport as he left for Sri Lanka just before the conflict, was then used by the PRC as a virtual declaration of war.
We can sigh, roll the eyes and say, as we repeatedly do, that these are the pitfalls of “democracy”, but we are playing with fire. The fact of the matter is that in 2012, in what one can only describe as some bizarre decisions, it was decided that the Armed Forces would hitherto only be entrusted with human intelligence (HUMINT) and all technical intelligence (TECHINT) would be the responsibility of other agencies. The one agency set up as an ad hoc unit after it was realised that there was no covert capability to strike back at Pakistan after the Mumbai attack, the much-maligned Technical Services Division (TSD), was amazingly declared a “rogue organisation” and it was disbanded by the very people it was serving.
The TSD was exposed in the media in an orchestrated manner by vested interests at the very top within the Army, but its demise also suited many others who despite operating with humungous budgets were falling short on results that were being put on the table by this small band of officers and men. Forget about RAW and IB, who on their official web page very rightly say their budgets “are classified”, the DIA and NTRO are packed with officers—quite a few re-employed—who have done some “imagery course” and for whom these tenures are “Dilli ki posting” where it is a nine-to-five job during which time their own post-retirement life takes precedence over everything else. I am not echoing some disgruntled voices, but one hears this lament repeatedly by those who are in the know. If it is letting out a national classified secret, well, so be it.
CHINESE WILL
STAY THROUGH THE WINTER
It should be pretty obvious by now that whatever the outcome of the disengagement talks, the Chinese are going to stay in Eastern Ladakh through the winter, which will throw up its own challenges. The gradual expansion of probes will continue, be it Himachal, Garhwal, Kumaon, Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan or Arunachal. The reiteration of their claim on Eastern Bhutan, and the chances of them following exactly the same pattern of aggression as in 1962 make the entire border from the Karakoram Pass in the west to Kibithoo in the east a burning hot potato (which is ironical, given the freezing temperatures across this entire zone).
How much time India has before something gives on the border a la Galwan, no one can tell, but there are immediate areas of concern that need to be addressed by the one man who today calls the shots, hopefully even if it concerns those in his immediate decision-making circle. Repeated intelligence failures cannot be swept under the carpet, and accountability has to be demanded.
On the ground, today we have three different Army commanders dealing with the Chinese, plus three Air Force commands, and various para-military headquarters each with their own pulls and pressures. In addition, we have two other countries that are also involved in the standoff. It is imperative that the flow of information is seamless and all differences sorted out. Enough studies and papers have been written on integrated command systems and though the fault-lines have been created over the years, it is now imperative that every resource is brought to bear in an optimal manner to counter the growing threat from the Chinese dragon by tackling these issues.
When he was the Home Minister, P Chidambaram had set up the Multi Agency Centre (MAC), wherein representatives of all intelligence agencies met on a daily basis to share information, but this was more or less entirely terrorism-centric. In fact, the NATGRID had been created that allowed for information to be shared on a real time basis, but then again, in a strange quirk of inverted logic, in the latter half of 2012 it was decided to take the Army out of this loop. With the growing multi-dimensional threat emerging from not only China but Pakistan also, these anomalies have to be corrected. We have to remember that once milk spills out of the bottle, there is no way one can put it back again. Shiv Kunal Verma is the author of the highly acclaimed 1962: The War That Wasn’t and The Long Road to Siachen: The Question Why.
The multi-dimensional crisis in Rajasthan, following the open dissent by 19 Congress MLAS spearheaded by Sachin Pilot, can have far-reaching political ramifications for the main characters involved in the unfolding drama, as well as for both the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party. The ongoing confrontation has brought to the fore serious constitutional questions concerning the role of the Governor, as also whether judicial intervention can provide a satisfactory solution.
Grossly disappointed with the High Court ruling, necessitating adjudication by the Supreme Court, the Rajasthan Chief Minister, Ashok Gehlot, has now urged the Governor, Kalraj Mishra, to convene the Assembly session on Monday. Under the Constitution, the Governor is bound by the advice of the Cabinet, and any procrastination by him could be construed as a violation of the established norms that govern the conduct and role of those holding gubernatorial assignments.
The Apex Court has, in the S.R. Bommai case, clearly defined that the only way a government can prove its majority is to test its strength on the floor of the House. Therefore, any act that poses an impediment, whatever may be the extraordinary circumstances, is likely to be interpreted as an infringement of the judgement.
The Congress has already made it known that it would not allow the Governor to act as a puppet of the Centre, and if required, state-wide protests, demanding his removal, would be held in various parts of Rajasthan. Mishra has been a seasoned politician himself and thus is unlikely to allow his image to be tarnished in any manner, and would eventually abide by both the letter and spirit of law and the laid-out conventions.
The primary objective of Gehlot for going ahead with an Assembly session is that he wants to take the battle to a forum where he would be in total control, after being convinced that he had the numbers to prove his majority. The Assembly session would also ensure that the rebel MLAS, who so far have sought refuge at a resort at Manesar, in adjoining Haryana, shall ultimately have to make themselves present in Jaipur.
These MLAS can face disqualification from the Assembly in case the Chief Minister has the requisite strength. Once inside the House, they would be bound both by the party whip, and in an event where their actions appear to be not in accordance with what is expected of them, the Speaker shall have the final say in the matter. In other words, they would face the ignominy of first being disqualified from the membership of the Assembly and later being expelled from the party.
Their Congress colleagues are already accusing them of colluding with the BJP, to rock the government and have alleged that they are recipients of enormous amounts of money, paid to dislodge the ruling dispensation. This, however, is a charge that would be extremely difficult to substantiate.
Gehlot, in his third term as the Chief Minister, knows precisely how to counter the offensives from his own erstwhile colleagues as also his political opponents. He is exhibiting high optimism since he thinks that the BJP initiated the Operation Lotus, without taking their own state leaders in confidence. The saffron brigade has its own share of factions, and not too many leaders would want Sachin Pilot to be appointed as the Chief Minister.
Although state BJP chief, Satish Poonia, in a TV interview stated that if the situation allows, Pilot could be the CM, yet he also hastened to add that it was premature to judge the facts since the matter was sub-judice. Another prominent leader, considered close to former CM Vasundhara Raje, categorically said that the BJP did not have the numbers and hence was not interested in forming the government, thereby implying that the Gehlot government was in no danger of falling.
The Vasundhara camp is also viewing the political scenario with keen interest. During the run-up to the recent Rajya Sabha polls, where the BJP had put up two candidates, she had publicly questioned its leadership, with regard to the necessity of fielding the second nominee, when it was picture clear that only one would win. In other words, the BJP’S central leadership is also reconsidering its options, given that the political uncertainty does not guarantee its success. In addition, while exposing serious differences within the Congress, the political theatrics would also be unable to conceal factionalism within the saffron brigade itself.
There are political analysts who are of the view that the BJP should have played its game differently; instead of shielding Pilot and his dissident MLAS, it should have allowed them to be disqualified from the Assembly. The disqualification would have reduced the Gehlot government to a wafer-thin majority, obtained with the assistance of Independents and smaller parties. Therefore, subsequently, the target of toppling the government would have become easier, if the BJP would have succeeded in wooing the majority of Independents on its side.
So far as the expelled MLAS were concerned, the BJP would not have been bound by any obligations to furnish them tickets on its symbol during the byelections. This way, the discontentment amongst hopefuls within the BJP would have been well-handled, with many of them receiving the nomination. However, if the MLAS were to resign before their inevitable debarment, the BJP would have no option but to field them in the ensuing bypolls, thus creating dissidence in its own camp.
In this, “do or die battle”, Ashok Gehlot simply cannot afford to lose. Between us.