The mood of Uttar Pradesh, from ground zero

The biggest strength of the BJP is the Modi-yogi electoral combination, coupled with the organizational strength in the state.

Ahead of the crucial Uttar Pradesh elections 2022, we at Jan Ki Baat conducted the Asianet Survey on Uttar Pradesh in August. The last Assembly elections saw the Bharatiya Janata Party sweeping the state with a thumping majority of 312 seats and a 39.67% vote share. With elections still months away, a conclusive study on vote share and seat share will be a politically naive exercise, but it is prudent to understand the issues that can determine the election narrative of the state across caste lines.

While Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath rates 8% more than Akhilesh Yadav on the question of “CM face”, more than 40% also gave emphasis to the weightage of the local MLA in deciding their voting preference. This makes the “Test of Candidate” a non negotiable election variable, unlike in 2019 or 2017. The biggest factor working in favour of the Yogi government has been the trust it enjoys among the people of state on the law and order index. As high as 70% people have appreciated the work of the government in maintaining law and order. Ideally, this can become a singular election narrative to make any government win the popular vote, but when household inflation is a factor for 45% of the same sample, it averages the possibility of an exponential impact of an exceptional law and order. Farm bill and the farmer agitation around the NCR against the proposed farm laws is not a state-wide election issue. As high as 55% respondents are unaware of the main components of the farm laws. The farmer agitation, though has been successful to get the attention of the Jaat community, particularly in Western UP. More than 50% of the Jaats are yet to make up their mind in favour of the current government in Uttar Pradesh.

Welfarism of the State and the Centre is acting as a catalyst to create a dent in the Scheduled Caste vote, which in the past used to be a homogenous voting bloc for the BSP. In areas around Kashi and Gorakhpur there has been a significant pull in the non Jatav SC voters towards the BJP. Hindutva packaged with social welfare is a more dominating factor among the SC voters than Bahujan. The impact of the Modi-yogi welfare model is not limited to making a dent in the SC vote, it has also consolidated the nondominating backward caste vote. This can help the BJP neutralise the base vote of the Samajwadi Party, which is standing firmly behind it. Both Muslim and Yadav voting blocs remain homogenous in their choices. The tilt of the Brahmin voters in the election may not be similar to 2017, provided Hindutva does not work as a pan state narrative near the election. Data reveals that the ability of the BJP to pull the Brahmin voter in the Kanpur region is not as high as the other regions, where around 70% Brahmin voters continue to support the BJP. The stickiness factor in this voting bloc is low, and it would require constant outreach by either political party—bjp and Sp—to gain the voter’s confidence from this bloc. If the Hindutva factor encapsulates the political narrative of the state towards the end of the year, the BJP can emerge as the consolidating force behind this voting bloc.

This state election is different from the last, with the SP favouring an alliance with smaller parties, over Congress and BSP. Congress is a non-factor in UP, and the electoral weight of BSP has reduced since 2017.

But in seats where margins will be narrow even a tacit understanding among the opponents of the BJP can temporarily tie the BJP’S forward march.

The biggest strength of the BJP has been the Modiyogi electoral combination, coupled with the organizational strength in the state. However, with BJP putting its entire weight behind CM Yogi Adityanath, “Yogi once more” and “this time Akhilesh” are competing electoral narratives on the ground.

Post Diwali, voters will start becoming more conscious about their voting choices, and a seat share and vote share projection will give an accurate estimate. At present the voters in different regions of Uttar Pradesh are warming up to different political players before the electoral season begins.

Pradeep Bhandari is Founder, Jan Ki Baat.

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