SONIA ACTION UNLIKELY TO SET THINGS RIGHT
Congress needs to win upcoming state polls which will be like semi-finals ahead of 2024 parliamentary elections.
The Congress is anxiously calculating whether or not Rahul Gandhi’s disqualification from the Lok Sabha will get the party sympathy. Similarly, the party is also worried about what will happen if Rahul Gandhi does not file an appeal against the conviction.
Informed sources believe that Rahul Gandhi will definitely file a petition against the conviction as he has no other option. As things stand today, Rahul Gandhi will be imprisoned for two years following which he will not be allowed to fight election for six years, if he does not file an appeal against the conviction. What will happen if Rahul Gandhi insists on going to jail? Will then Priyanka Gandhi Vadra be taking over his responsibilities? It is quite natural in politics to be ambitious. So, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra might also be having bigger ambitions. Her fiery speech at Rajghat during Satyagrah signalled that she would be leading from the front now. This has triggered speculation about Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s future role as well. The equations in the party will undergo a big change if Priyanka Gandhi Vadra takes over Rahul’s responsibilities. However, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s active role in UP did no good to the Congress. Allegations were made against her personal staff as well. A big faction which gives weightage to Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi, does not normally agree to the decisions taken by Priyanka Gandhi Vadra.
Therefore, gauging the mood of the party leaders, former Congress president Sonia Gandhi is in action now. This was relieving for many party leaders. The message was that only Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi will continue to be in the front role. Sonia Gandhi also rose to the occasion and held meetings with Congress and Opposition leaders. In fact, the party tried to galvanise the Opposition parties on the lines of what was seen in 2004. Congress leaders looked hopeful of Opposition parties, including Uddhav Thackeray’s outfit continuing to be with the grand old party. In fact, earlier Rahul Gandhi’s repeated criticism of Veer Sawarkar was creating problems for the Congress in Maharashtra. Despite spending 20 years in active politics, Rahul Gandhi is still unable to understand that there is no “Gandhi family charisma” left in the country any more. A strong organisation and concrete work can alone ensure success. Rahul Gandhi accuses BJP of spending a huge amount of money on the campaign to tarnish his image. If this is the case, then why does he not remain cautious in speeches? Several times he speaks about what lowers the dignity of the Prime Minister. He lost Lok Sabha membership because of his uncontrolled tonguelashing.
Now the party is playing the victim card, saying injustice has been done to him.
Rahul Gandhi always ignored advice to maintain dignity for the PM. During the first CWC meeting after the Congress’ defeat in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Rahul Gandhi had lambasted the leaders who did not raise the slogan “Chowkidar Chor Hai”. Rahul Gandhi had made the Rafale deal a big issue by raising this slogan. Rahul Gandhi had gone for Vipashyana meditation. But he did not change despite the mediation session. Stress and anger was quite visible on his face. He has been criticised for the way he has spoken with media persons during the press conferences. He should have read about his grandma Indira Gandhi who never spoke against Sawarkar. His comments on Sawarkar will damage the party prospects in Maharashtra. Congress leaders even admit that Rahul Gandhi’s comments are not appropriate. This also gives BJP an immense opportunity
to fire salvo at Rahul Gandhi on social media.
Rahul Gandhi has been targeting only Prime Minister for the last nine years, a stunt not going to work in the party’s favour. Even he should go by his mother Sonia Gandhi’s style of politics. She always spoke after the consent of the party. In fact, the party at this juncture needs a leader like Ahmed Patel who used to handle the situation smoothly. He used to help Sonia Gandhi take the decision that was most appropriate for the party. But today, leaders are in competition to please Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. Those who do not get patronage of Rahul Gandhi rush to Priyanka Gandhi. As a result, the party is getting weaker in states as well.
In fact, the Congress is expecting a miracle like 2004. The practice in the past was that Opposition parties used to be united to defeat Congress. Now the Congress is trying to use the same politics to defeat BJP. It is not focussing on how to regain the lost mass support in states. So, the grand old party is dependent on regional parties. But Akhilesh Yadav in UP, Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi and BRS leader K. Chandrashekar Rao are hardly giving any importance to Congress. The party is looking at RJD in Bihar, NCP in Maharashtra and DMK in Tamil Nadu. The Congress camps wear a deserted look in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Odisha and Bengal. The party is in a dilemma over choosing between Mamata and Left parties. AAP has captured Punjab like Delhi. The only states left are Rajasthan, MP, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir and Kerala. Congress has its governments only in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Himachal Pradesh. Rest are ruled by BJP. Polls will be held in Karnataka next month, while Telangana, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and MP will go to polls by year-end. Congress is ahead of BJP in MP, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka and Rajasthan. But Congress seems to be reluctant to capitalise on the advantage it has gained so far. It has fallen into the trap of BJP’S politics. Instead of concentrating on states, the party is focussing on the battle for Rahul Gandhi who has lost his Parliament membership. Rahul Gandhi’s membership may be revoked after the appeal in the higher court. But the party’s negligent approach towards poll-bound states will cost it dear. The opposition which appears to be rallying behind the Congress may again distance itself from it if it loses state polls. Rahul Gandhi needs to understand that it is mandatory to fight small battles to win a big one. Though Sonia Gandhi is fighting to save the party and salvage Rahul Gandhi’s credibility, she is unlikely to succeed in doing so.
Regional parties usually go with the outfit which happens to be in the winning position. In fact, all the parties in opposition have their origin in the Congress. So, the opposition unity that was visible at the parliament premises will remain intact only when Congress wins states.
There is no dearth of experienced leaders who can help Congress regain the lost ground. But Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi have to decide whether they want to rope in the experienced and old leaders, or they want to continue to be dependent on the leaders who are advising them presently. Rahul Gandhi will be able to work more efficiently if there is less interference by Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and her team of young leaders. Time is already running out.
There is no place for experiments as Lok Sabha polls are just a year away. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity graph is almost intact. The Congress can get a respectable number of seats in 2024 only if it wins states.