The Sense of Shock and Awe

The downing of a Russian aircraft by Turkey is the latest twist in centuries of tangled relations between two great powers with a long history of tension and rivalry, one that dates back to the Crimean War (1856). Contextualised with the past, the targeting of the Su-24 jet will be recorded as the first time since the Cold War that a NATO member has shot down a Russian military aircraft. Lessons of history would suggest that such incidents have the potential to ignite deadlier confrontation and not least in the context of Syria that has reached boiling point. On the face of it, Turkey has bared its angst over continued breaches of its airspace over the past two months, more accurately ever since Russia began its air-strikes on Syria on 30 September, as much against the rebels as against ISIS.

On this day, however, as a Turkish map has indicated, the plane had entered its airspace only briefly as it crossed a piece of Turkish territory that projects into Syria. Transcending the map-pointing conclusions, the Syrian factor is pivotal in the evolving game theory. The government in Ankara is acutely aware that its attempt to get rid of President Assad has come a cropper, and that it now has diminishing influence over developments in Syria. The international power-play now includes Russia, the USA, and France and the military involvement might in due course of time include Britain as well.

While the response of NATO is awaited, its membernations will almost certainly lend rhetorical support to Turkey, a fellow-member. That said, the Western alliance cannot afford to be impervious to President Vladimir Putin’s accusation that Turkey is the “accomplice of terrorists”. Ankara has been known to lend its support to the Syrian armed opposition, including extreme groups like Jabhat al-Nusra and Ahrar al-Sham, over the past three years. At another remove, it is said to have allowed the self-declared Islamic State to sell oil through Turkey.

Altogether, geopolitics has assumed a lethal dimension in the midst of the international power-play, and the downing of the Russian plane is but a symptom of the overwhelming crisis that confronts Europe and the Arab world. Both President Putin and his Turkish counterpart, President RecepTayyip Erdogan, will have to countenance a daunting challenge. Of course, the latter is on a robust domestic wicket, having won a sweeping victory in the parliamentary elections on 1 November. Foreign policy is a different kettle of fish, however. His strong position in the wake of the Arab Spring (2011) has declined over the years. And at this juncture, it can be damaging for Turkey if its relations with Russia and Iran deteriorate - powerful neighbours both. On its part, NATO can be expected to prevent further Russian-Turkish hostilities... in the interest of Russian cooperation in combating ISIS and ending the Syrian conflict.

The sense of shock and awe is frightfully overwhelming.

The Dragon sets sail

China has signed a 10-year agreement that will allow it to set up and use a naval logistics base in Djibouti, an enclave-sized African nation near the strategic maritime chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. With this, Beijing has overturned its long proclaimed policy that China would never set up overseas military bases.

Chinese military bases are sprouting all over the South China Sea, which Beijing claims as its own. The Djibouti base will be overseas even by China’s own definition. China has drawn a thin veil over its Indian Ocean base by claiming it is designed to support anti-piracy activities. But no one should take that claim seriously. The Somali pirates’ problem has almost disappeared.

New Delhi has accepted Beijing has legitimate security concerns and interests regarding the Indian Ocean. India has also urged a multilateral dialogue on China’s other concerns about the Indian Ocean.

China, however, has declined to discuss the issue and preferred to woo littoral countries, while developing maritime capacities in and around the ocean. India can only presume that China sees their respective military and political influence in this region as a zero sum game.

Beijing’s strategists argue that the slow but steady withdrawal of US naval power from the Indian Ocean means that China must take up some of these policing activities. They also argue India is not up to the task. The sorry record of India’s investment in naval power makes it difficult for New Delhi to argue otherwise.

Ultimately, however, India must do a lot more to expand its influence in the ocean that bears its name. This is not merely about warships. It is also about cementing political and economic ties with strategically important littoral countries.China had claimed it would not be a great power in the Western imperial tradition. With each passing year this is being shown to be untrue. If anything,