BEYOND BORDERS
LOOKING AT MEXICO'S ATTRACTIONS FOR TOURISTS AND INVESTORS
he’s regarded as a populist, a nationalist and something of a maverick, and has been described as a “foil” and “natural enemy” of Trump as well as “Juan Trump”, allegedly by Trump himself.
But AMLO is no upstart and certainly not a political novice, having been active across various left-wing parties for more than 40 years. He ran for president in 2006 and lost by a hair to Felipe Calderon. As mayor of the megalopolis he was, on the whole, a successful and occasionally inspired leader.
Eric L Olson, deputy director of the Wilson Centre’s Latin American Programme and senior adviser to the Centre’s Mexico Institute, believes there is some room for optimism.
“Like all new governments, there is a problem of vagueness about the policies to be pursued upon taking office. AMLO’s government is no exception. Nevertheless, there are some broad outlines taking shape. AMLO won an overwhelming mandate from the voters who were sick of the traditional parties, record levels of violence and outrageous corruption at every level of government. So there is a general sense of optimism that AMLO will take a fresh approach to these problems and be able to attack them in a new way.
“In my view, an emphasis on the ‘soft side’ of security – economic investments, development and opportunities for youth
– is much needed, but will mostly have long-term impact and may not be adequate to address the current pressing problems of high levels of violence and lack of public trust in the institutions of state, such as police and prosecutors.”
Olson points out that a planned amnesty for small producers of illicit drugs, and the possibility of creating regulated markets for some drugs, may well be a worthwhile consideration, but could fail to satisfy Mexicans’ expectations of the new government.“What is needed… is a very specific strategy to rebuild the state at local level,” argues Olson. “A centralised top-down approach, limited to building a strong federal police or a military police, does not address local problems where the state is not providing security and where it is actually crumbling.”
ECONOMIC GROWTH
Ultimately, social injustice and inequality is Mexico’s main and enduring problem. In addition to security measures, the country desperately needs economic agility, a much fairer distribution of wealth and even greater diversification.
Some major changes are already afoot. Mexico’s energy reforms, signed off by outgoing president Enrique Pena Nieto in 2013, ended 75 years of state monopoly in the local oil and gas sector. With UMSCA settled, for now at least, there is cautious optimism that private capital and technical expertise will rebuild the Mexican energy industry, maximise oil and gas revenue, and boost economic growth in the long term.
Startup innovation has traditionally been centred in Mexico City, as well as Monterrey and Guadalajara, but is now spreading wider. The northern city of Chihuahua, for instance, is emerging as a potential tech hub, with campus-led initiatives from the Tecnologico de Monterrey (TEC), often referred to as the MIT of Mexico.
On the downside, shrinking wages, falling growth and a weakening peso were 2017 trends that need to be reversed. A lot is hanging on the incoming Mexican president as well as the current US one.
But Mexico doesn’t do Brexit-style doom and gloom. In fact, says Enrique Dussel Peters, the main problem may be a tendency to be too rosy about the nation’s future prospects.
“In Mexico we are witnessing huge optimism and huge expectations; these expectations, however, have to be dealt with cautiously, since no government in Mexico, including AMLO, will be able to solve most of the structural problems of Mexico’s society and economy – from corruption and inequality to poverty and security – in the short and medium term.”