Climate science update: Bad news gets worse

the global average hovered at about 280 ppm.

Concentrations of the secondmost important greenhouse gases — methane (CH4) — have also risen sharply over the last decade, driven by leakage from the gas industry’s fracking boom, and growth in global livestock.

Many climate scientists argued that capping CO2 at 450 ppm gives us a fighting chance of staying under the 2°C threshold. Others said that the limit for a ‘climate-safe’ world is much lower, around 350 ppm.

Melting ice

Arctic summer sea ice in 2017 shrank to 4.64 million square kilometers. That’s only the eighthsmallest ice cover since 2012, when it dropped to 3.39 million km2. But long-term trends are unmistakable: Arctic sea ice cover is declining at a rate of 13.2 percent per decade, relative to the 19812010 average.

Climate models predicted that the Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer as early as 2030.

At the other end of the world, Antarctic sea ice hit the lowest extent ever recorded by satellites last year as well.

Earth’s two massive ice sheets — atop Greenland and Antarctica — are currently shedding 286 and 127 billion tons of mass per year, respectively.

High-altitude glaciers, meanwhile, declined in surface area in 2016 for the 37th year in a row.

Extreme events

The WMO said there are demonstrable links between manmade climate change and some extreme events, especially heatwaves.

The number of climate-related extreme events — droughts, forest fires, floods, major storm surges —has doubled since 1990, research has shown. 2017 saw the first severe tropical storm known to sustain winds of 295 kilometers per hour for more than 33 hours (Irma); and a hurricane that dropped a record 125 centimeters of water on land (Harvey).

The intensity of typhoons battering China, Taiwan, Japan and the Korean Peninsula since 1980, one study has shown, has increased by 12 to 15 percent.

Natural disasters drive about 26 million people into poverty every year, said the World Bank, and cause annual losses of about $520 million (€463 million).

84.8 millimeters

Sea level — caused mainly by the expansion of water as it warms, and runoff from ice sheets and glaciers — is currently rising by 3.4 millimeters per year. Since 1993, the global ocean watermark has gone up by 84.8mm.

The pace is likely to pick up, threatening the homes and livelihoods of tens of millions of people in low-lying areas around the world.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in January the global average sea level could be between 0.3 and 2.5 meters (one foot to 8.2 feet) higher by 2100.

1,688 species

Of the 8,688 species of animals and plants listed as ‘threatened’ on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN) Red List, 19 percent— 1,688 species — have been negatively affected by climate change.

Scientists said that Earth has entered a ‘mass extinction event’, only the 6th in the last half-billion years.