Metal constraints for a low-carbon economy

It is often thought that a transition to a lowcarbon economy requires an enormous increase of the use of metals like steel and copper and smaller amounts of critical raw materials.

For power generation and mobility systems, this is true. An electric car needs a battery. Wind turbines need strong magnets. Replacing a normal car for an electric car can easily require dozens or even hundreds of times more lithium per car, for instance, phys.org reported.

But the current amounts used in such applications are relatively low, Leiden University researchers found. So researchers are studying the growth of use in such sectors compared to current dominant applications.

Applying life cycle assessment and input output methods, tools pioneered by Institute of Environmental Sciences, (CML), an institute at Leiden University in the Netherlands, scenarios were developed for the power and automotive sectors and the wider economy in general. Overall, the differences between the business as usual and low-carbon scenarios were much more moderate than expected.

Arjan de Koning, who led the study said, “In both types of scenarios, you see for most metals a demand that is three to four times higher in 2050 as now.

“In the low-carbon scenario, we see only for neodymium and dysprosium five to eight times growth in demand. At the same time, for these metals, the current reserves are sufficient to cover their cumulative demand until 2050.” Does this imply there is no problem? Arnold Tukker, CML director said, “No, that is too simple.

“Tripling or quadrupling resource supply is an enormous challenge. You do not open mines just like that. You need years of planning and large investments. These only will be done if mining companies and their banks are certain that the demand will be there.”