World Bank raises China 2017 growth forecast, but maintains 2018 GDP growth
The World Bank on Tuesday raised its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2017 to 6.8 percent from 6.7 percent it projected in October, as personal consumption and foreign trade supported growth.
But the Washington-based lender kept its forecast for China’s 2018 and 2019 GDP growth unchanged at 6.4 percent and 6.3 percent, respectively, due to less accommodative monetary policy and the government’s effort to rein in credit and control leverage, Reuters wrote.
The key downside risks to the forecast are the still rising leverage of the nonfinancial sector and uncertainty around housing prices.
“Despite the recent slowdown, credit continues to grow considerably faster than GDP. Outstanding bank loans reached 150 percent of GDP in November 2017, up from 103 percent at the end of 2007,” the World Bank said in its China Economic Update.
China’s economy grew at a faster-thanexpected 6.9 percent over the first nine months of the year, but Beijing’s campaign to reduce risks in the financial sector has pushed up borrowing costs, raising concerns GDP growth could take a hit next year.
But strong growth so far this year has given policymakers an opportunity to accelerate deleveraging, which is “likely to come at the cost of slower GDP growth in the near term but will improve China’s long-term economic prospects,” the World Bank report said.
External risks to China’s economy include the potential for more restrictive trade policies in advanced economies, and geopolitical tensions, the report said. Trucks loaded with boxes full of olives were queueing at a press plant in this small Tunisian town as the North African country sees a surge in olive oil production in a badly-needed boost to its ailing economy.
Tunisia, one of the world’s top three olive oil producers, expects olive production to jump by 160 percent to between 1.5 million tons and 1.6 million tons in the 2017 season which started in November, the agriculture ministry said, Reuters reported.
That will translate into up to 280 million tons of olive oil, about 80 percent of which will be exported, helping to generate hard currency needed to stabilize its battered dinar.
Tunisia has been in economic crisis since a popular uprising in 2011 ousted autocrat Zine El-abidine Ben Ali. The crisis has deepened as militant attacks took their toll on the tourism industry and weakened the dinar against hard currencies.
“It will be an exceptional (olive) season thanks to much better rainfall than last year,” said Hamdi Khalifa, owner of an olive oil press in Bani Hassen, one of the main production areas located a two-hour drive south of the capital Tunis.
His workers produce 90 tons of olive oil each day in the press compared to 40 tons a year ago, he said. Prices have shot up with 10 liters of oil now selling for 90 dinars.
Last year’s production had been hit hard by a drought.
Turkish Lira Euro British Pound Australian Dollar Canadian Dollar Crude Oil Gold Copper 0.2608 1.1808 1.3394 0.7671 0.7775 $57.40 $1267.00 $3.12 Japanese 100 Yen Chinese Yuan UAE Dirham Kuwaiti Dinar Iraqi 100 Dinar Silver Platinum Wheat 0.8870 0.1512 0.2722 3.3090 0.0840 $16.19 $911.40 $421.00