Weather will remain predictable despite climate change
Although the temperature of the Earth is becoming warmer and climate change is causing adverse effects worldwide, the act of forecasting the weather will remain consistent over the next thirty years, according to new research.
Scientists have undertaken computer simulations of jet stream behavior and have concluded that ranges of forecasts by the middle of the century (up to thirty years from today) will be very similar to those undertaken today, digitaljournal.com reported.
The new computer models come from the University of Missouri-columbia. Here the researchers found that under conditions of rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, which are the key contributor to the climate edging towards warmer temperatures, the weather will continue to remain predictable based on current meteorological methods.
The outcome of future predictability does not negate the negative effects of climate change. Analysis from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change shows that temperatures are expected to rise by up to up to 10°F (or 0.2°C) over the next one hundred years. This level of planetary warming is will contribute to increasing sea levels plus the melting of glaciers, together with other climate changes.
According to lead researcher Dr. Anthony Lupo: “The jet stream changes character every 10 to 12 days, and we use this pattern to predict the weather.”
He added, giving the reason for the research: “We were curious about how this would change in a world with higher carbon dioxide levels. We found that in that warmer world, the variability of the jet stream remained the same.”
With this marker the researchers found that the jet stream would alter up to 35 times each year, a number of changes that is consistent with current jet stream behaviors. So, while the temperature will be higher, the ability to assess these warming levels mean that the weather remains predictable.
The new analysis has been published in the journal Atmosphere, with the research paper titled ‘The Dynamic Character of Northern Hemisphere Flow Regimes in a Near-term Climate Change Projection’.