Brexit will make UK worse off, government forecasts warn
The UK will be poorer economically under any form of Brexit, compared with staying in the EU, government analysis suggests.
Official figures say the UK economy could be up to 3.9% smaller after 15 years under Theresa May’s Brexit plan, compared with staying in the EU, BBC reported.
But a no-deal Brexit could deliver a 9.3% hit, the new estimates say.
Chancellor Philip Hammond said the deal was not just about the economy, but would deliver “political benefits” too.
The government’s Brexit deal faces a potentially difficult vote in the House of Commons on December 11.
The Treasury estimates do not put a cash figure on the potential impact on the economy, but independent experts have said that 3.9% of GDP would equate to about £100 billion a year by the 2030s.
The 83-page document does not attempt precisely to forecast the impact of May’s deal.
But it compares the likely impact of the proposals in July and set out in the government’s White Paper with the alternative scenarios of Norway-style membership of the European Economic Area, a Canada-style free trade agreement with the EU and a no-deal Brexit. The economy will expand under all the scenarios. However, the report found that after 15 years, under all Brexit scenarios, the economy would still be smaller than if the UK had remained in the European Union.
Former Brexit secretary David Davis questioned the research, saying previous Treasury forecasts had been proved wrong and were based on “flawed assumptions”.