Our economic hopes for 2018 ‘Stormont return is crucial to face huge challenges’
As 2017 comes to a conclusion, five leading economists who write for the Business Telegraph, predict the trials, tribulations and occasional triumphs for the next year
IF 2018 is to be a year of success, then for the present we must hope that the collective efforts of our business community generate success locally and on the international stage.
The year opens with a greater degree of uncertainty than other recent years.
The uncertainty of Brexit cannot accurately be assessed. The EU-UK negotiations have not yet shown how the trading problems will be tackled and solved.
What looks like a further two years of waiting for clarity from the Brussels talks is unwelcome to many businesses and, indirectly, may have adverse consequences on the labour market.
These Brexit uncertainties weigh heavily against the oft restated aspirations of the Brexiters. The Brexit deal, eventually, will give a shake to the economies of this island.
The deal to avoid a ‘hard border’ is still too imprecise to give full reassurance.
No ‘hard border’ is not the same as ‘no border’: the phase one declarations are welcome and point in a constructive direction. Sadly, they can be interpreted as ambiguous.
Closer to home, 2018 will be more comfortable if there is an agreement to put the Executive not just back in office but with a mutually agreed mechanism for joint working on a series of constructive policies for the economy and social questions.
The agenda is long and weighty: the solutions call for tough decisions to live within the available budget, some of which will bring initial discomfort to leave room for longer-term restoration of the economy.
This is a year when we should acknowledge the big challenges and help to build a momentum for a more competitive successful economy.
Further uncertainty, further drift and further inaction would all be very easy... but very damaging.