No deal Brexit ‘could ground flights’ unless new measures agreed

BRITISH aircraft “would not be allowed to fly” in the event of a no deal Brexit unless new arrangements for commercial flights are introduced by March, a think tank has said.

There is no fall-back plan for air traffic control rights under World Trade Organisation rules if a deal cannot be struck with Brussels, the Institute for Economic Affairs warned.

But the IEA stressed the Government has options to put measures in place before March — and while it would “require flexibility on both sides”, there is an “overwhelming” mutual interest to protect aviation from upheaval.

In the first of a series of ‘no deal fear checker’ reports released today, it said the risk of flights being grounded was “conceivable, but still very unlikely”.

The report said leaving the EU’s single aviation market (Sam) in March without a new arrangement would see most UK-based airlines lose their operating licences for the 27 counEU tries. Sam currently covers the UK’s rights to the so-called “freedoms of the air”, which include overflights of countries without landing and operating internal flights in foreign countries.

The UK would also lose air traffic rights involving countries including the United States, Canada and Switzerland, as they were made through the EU.

In the report, author Julian Jessop, the IEA’s chief economist, wrote: “In summary, if there are no alternative arrangements in place, it would be as bad as the worst fears suggest: planes would not be allowed to fly.”

However, the report said there were options open to the Government:

It could “immediately” join other non-EU countries Norway and Iceland as members of the European Common Aviation Area (ECAA), although this would mean following existing EU rules and “fudging” some Government Brexit “red lines”.

It could negotiate a bespoke free trade agreement for aviation which would give the UK more control over the rules but could also mean “reduced access to the market” and “would also take longer to agree”. Negotiations would be more difficult if the EU takes a hard line in the event of a no deal Brexit, it added.

There are also three “reasons for optimism” the worst-case scenario would not happen, it found.

The UK has “plenty of leverage” as the largest market in Europe and third largest in the world. The report also said: “Grounding UK airlines would be hugely damaging for the EU economy, particularly in areas like tourism.

It continued: “Third, even if this is left to the last moment, there are several quick fixes.

“In particular, the UK and EU (or a third country like the US) could agree at least a temporary extension of the current arrangements by something as simple as a memorandum of understanding.”

A Government spokeswoman said: “We believe that it is in the interests of both sides to ensure continuity — enabling UK and EU airlines to continue to operate air services and to develop new services.”