Arlene Foster is maligned for not trusting EU assurances post-Brexit ... so why are her pro-Remain critics never called out for not believing Brussels either?
EU Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker couldn’t have been clearer last June: no hard border under any circumstances. Surely, his word should be good enough? We’re about to find out, writes Eilis O’Hanlon
Remember devolution? It was supposed to bring decision-making closer to the local level. Instead, with Stormont suspended and Brexit talks in crisis, Northern Ireland’s future is now being decided in Belgium, of all places.
The latest round of talks in Brussels over the next few days will revolve around what’s become known as the “Northern Ireland backstop”. It’s one of those neologisms, like selfie and binge-watching, that people didn’t even know they needed until it was invented.
Essentially, Britain wants to have a free trade agreement with the EU, which would allow commerce to continue exactly as before, but without accepting EU rules on collective trade bargaining and free movement of people. The EU thinks — not unreasonably — that this would give Britain benefits not enjoyed by remaining members, so they’re resisting.
If both sides are unable to overcome those difficulties, London and Brussels agreed last year that there needed to be a fallback arrangement, so that, in the event of a “no deal”, nothing would change on the Irish border and goods and people could still flow freely, as the peace process demanded.
The problem is this either means the UK as a whole staying in the customs union,
or Northern Ireland abiding by different rules than the rest of the UK.
The first option is unacceptable to Brexiteers and the second to unionists, for obvious reasons.
Once Northern Ireland is hived off from Great Britain and left in the jurisdiction of the EU, Ireland has effectively become an all-island unit.
Hence, the deadlock which this week’s summit is meant to resolve.
There were glimmers of hope over the weekend that there may be a breakthrough, but they proved premature. In fact, the deadlock may be getting worse, since the EU is now said to be demanding a “backstop to the backstop”, namely that, if it’s not possible to agree a UK-wide backstop, the original Northern Ireland-only proposal should kick in.
Complicating the situation still further is that Theresa May needs DUP votes in order to survive at Westminster.
All things considered, it’s surprising — as pointed out on BBC’s Politics Live on Monday — that the Prime Minister has been as tough as she has with the DUP.
Nationalists tend to portray Theresa May as feebly in hock to the shrill demands of hardline unionists, but if that was the case, then she’d have backed down long since. Instead, the Tory leader keeps inching both unionists and Brexiteers along, forcing them to tighten the screws periodically in response, not least by threatening to effectively collapse the government. DUP deputy leader Nigel Dodds calls it a “battle for the Union itself”.
Democratic Unionist rhetoric has softened a little since the weekend’s high drama, but the Prime Minister would be foolish to dismiss their objections to what’s being cobbled together in Brussels as bluster. That they’re still prepared to risk the survival of the Government — potentially opening the door of 10 Downing Street to republican sympathiser Jeremy Corbyn — shows how serious the stakes have become. Or, perhaps, that should be surreal?
Sinn Fein has actually taken to accusing the DUP of putting “flag-waving jingoism” before the economy. Republicans have always placed constitutional doctrinairism above ordinary people’s jobs and livelihoods — not to mention their lives — to the extent that Michelle O’Neill’s patriotic heroes in the IRA were prepared to blow Belfast’s commercial centre to smithereens in order to advance their lunatic cause.
Despite most of our exports going across the Irish Sea, it’s telling that Sinn Fein’s real concern is still with ensuring there are no barriers between north and south, where a much smaller fraction of trade is done. That’s “flag-waving jingoism”, too.
O’Neill even had the cheek to say this week that “the DUP can’t wish away... basic economics”. Getting lectures on “basic economics” from the Shinners is like being ticked off for marital infidelity by the MP for Upper Bann.
Long gone are the days when republicans opposed foreign interference in Irish affairs, that’s for sure. It turns out that they were only against it if the people telling them what to do were speaking English. As long as they spoke French, like EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier, Sinn Fein rolls over like an obedient puppy.
One thing seems to have been forgotten in all this. When EU Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker (left) addressed the Dail in June, he was asked a simple question by Richard Boyd Barrett of People Before Profit: “If negotiations fail with the Tory Government on the exit agreement, will you give us a clear commitment that the European Union will not impose a border, customs posts, or any other infrastructure on the frontier?”
Juncker couldn’t have been clearer. “Yes,” he said, agreeing there would be no border apparatus, or personnel “under any circumstances”.
Northern Ireland and the Republic already have different VAT regimes, after all. That is managed smoothly without customs officials checking every truck. Why, then, are those, such as the SDLP and Alliance Party, who purport to believe that the EU is negotiating in good faith, not reassured by Juncker’s words?
Arlene Foster explosively suggested in this newspaper at the weekend that Barnier had tried to fob her off with a straight “lie”: that Northern Ireland would have the best of both worlds if unionists acceded to the backstop.
Could it be that, deep down, Foster’s pro-Remain critics don’t trust the EU, either?
That includes the Irish Government, who are now accusing the British of “backsliding” over the backstop. If the EU is acting in good faith, why isn’t Juncker’s guarantee enough?
Either way, we may be about to find out. The chances of “no deal” have risen sharply in recent weeks and Theresa May heads to the EU summit in Brussels with disgruntled Tories plotting her downfall at Westminster.
With so few friends, there’s an argument to be made that Northern Ireland’s interests would be better served right now by the DUP backing, rather than undermining, the Prime Minister. To uphold the Union, May has been prepared to risk the wrath of her party by not ruling out the idea of the UK as a whole staying in close alignment with the EU.
That ought to count for something. If May is ultimately prioritising Northern Ireland’s place in the Union, isn’t that more of a win for the DUP than rowing in behind those pushing for a hard Brexit?
Arlene Foster either wants to have her cake and eat it, or finds herself in the same position as Theresa May, being buffeted on all sides from colleagues with conflicting — and possibly irreconcilable — demands. The DUP needs to decide which is more important: the Union or Brexit.
Surely, that’s an easy choice?
All things considered, it’s surprising the Prime Minister has been as tough as she has with DUP
May heads to the EU summit with disgruntled Tories plotting her downfall at Westminster