This could bring the best of times for NI

Perhaps Charles Dickens, if alive today, might write of Northern Ireland: “It could be the best of times, it could be the worst of times.”

The best of times? Being the only part of the UK and Europe offered unfettered access to two very large single markets, and not only to these markets but to export through both their respective trade agreements.

To be free from the restrictions of a Canada-style trade agreement, where paperwork and certification of origin costs would cripple small local exporting businesses.

To be free from the restrictions such an agreement would impose on global sourcing of materials incorporated into goods for export, making NI the best place in either the UK or Europe to establish a manufacturing base to service both markets.

It’s not surprising therefore that Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is objecting to the competitive advantage this could give us in creating high value jobs.

Or, it could be the worst of times. The BBC reported on Tuesday on government analysis of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit, which estimated that NI goods exports could fall by £1.6bn, with up to £1.1bn being the hit on NI agriculture.

If ‘no-deal’ was the plan, we would need several years to reposition our industry, invest in factories and develop overseas markets.

Under the ‘no-deal’ option we have four months. This “inconvenient truth”, ignored by Brexit politicians, means we are only four months away from the train wreck of a collision between the fantasy politics of denial and the reality of farmers’ livelihoods destroyed as a result of being on the wrong side of a tax border we cannot trade through.

We should not be under any illusion. What is on offer is not perfect. It is not the deal, only a withdrawal agreement, with a limited insurance policy in respect of trade in goods from NI.

However, business in general is prepared to accept these challenges to protect jobs, to create the best of times and avoid the worst of times.