DUP won’t be swayed by May’s charm offensive

It is an indication of the pivotal position that Northern Ireland holds in the Brexit debate that the Prime Minister Theresa May has taken the time to extend her charm offensive to this side of the Irish Sea.

Her 900-plus word article published exclusively in this newspaper today can be viewed as an attempt to convince unionists that the draft deal she has struck with the EU is as good as it gets and that it gives Northern Ireland business positive advantages through unfettered access to its main marketplaces in Britain, the Republic and other countries of the EU.

Mrs May is well aware that she is unlikely to change the minds of the DUP, who having backed themselves into a corner on the issue and raised fears over the integrity of the union can hardly do an about face. She is also aware that the ordinary unionist on the street, who having long memories of what they would call past Tory treachery over the proroguing of Stormont and signing the Anglo-Irish Agreement which gave Dublin a say in the affairs of Northern Ireland, also needs reassurance that whatever the economic outcome, the union remains safe.

The Prime Minister says the consent principle contained in the Belfast Agreement guarantees Northern Ireland’s constitutional status as part of the UK but a large thrust of her argument is of the economic benefits of the draft deal.

But she also points out a compelling economic argument for accepting the draft deal. She stresses that the government will keep regulations consistent across the UK in order to minimise any checks and controls and ensure no divergence between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. That directly addresses unionist fears of a border down the Irish Sea and can be seen as a significant concession to their concerns.

She is keen to name check the business organisations that have come out in favour of the deal — while admitting it is imperfect but infinitely preferable to a No Deal — and as our business pages today reveal, those who previously trumpeted their support for Brexit have suddenly gone quiet.

Mrs May also cites the need for continued security co-operation between Northern Ireland and its EU counterparts, assures people that the common travel area between the Republic and the UK will continue, and assures politicians that when taking back control of laws Westminster, where appropriate, will pass them to the devolved administrations. This is another reason for getting the Assembly and Executive back and having a functioning administration here but that is unlikely to happen soon.

The Prime Minister gives three assurances why there is no need to fear the backstop to the EU divorce bill — the implementation period can be extended instead of entering the backstop; regulations across the UK will be kept consistent ensuring no divergence between Britain and Northern Ireland and, finally, this is only a temporary measure which can be terminated.

So will her charm offensive work? She is preaching to the converted as far as the business community is concerned — although it cannot be taken as read that everyone in the organisations which have backed the draft deal is in tune with their leaderships. At least the business community feels they can begin to plan for the future.

Politicians are a different matter. Their expressed concern is of any threat to the union.

All else is of secondary importance to unionists.

Having raised fears, will they be reassured that there is no threat from this draft deal? That is a question which only time will answer.