Leaving EU would be costly exercise

BOB Granville ( Write Back, November 14) reiterates the ONS figures, which show the cost of the EU to us is £ 76bn yearly; £ 8bn in membership fees and the remainder as trade deficit with them.

He seems to imply that leaving the EU will save us this amount. But that is not the case if we still continue to consume the things we import from the EU.

Trade with the EU, but outside the customs union and single market, would raise the cost of these imports and so worsen our deficit. If we could find import substitution for all these goods elsewhere then we could save some money, but not £ 76bn a year. You have to subtract the cost of the new imports to get the true saving. Since we do not know the cost and availability of these import substitutions, we have no reliable estimate of this cost.

Although we do not know the savings we make by leaving, we do know some of the costs of departure.

One which is already clear is loss of foreign investment in manufacturing industries which rely on export into the EU.

Outside the EU, we are at a severe disadvantage when it comes to producing the next generation of ecologically friendly technology, which Boris Johnson seems to think will be our role in the world economy. Without investment and expansion of high-tech manufacturing our deficits will only increase inside or outside the EU, which Bob and I both agree would be a bad thing.

SCEPTIC

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