Areas with a low rate of infection must keep guard up, says expert
NORTHERN Ireland council areas with low rates of confirmed coronavirus cases must not get complacent, a top virologist has warned.
Dr Connor Bamford, a research fellow at Queen’s University, issued the plea as the death toll here hit 13 yesterday and the number of recorded infections jumped by 34 to a total of 275 cases.
The Public Health Agency’s (PHA) latest figures reveal that a total of 4,014 people here have been tested for the infection.
Meanwhile, the UK overall witnessed its biggest day-on-day rise in deaths since the Covid-19 outbreak, bringing the total to 759 deaths recorded in hospitals across all four regions.
Uk-wide a total of 113,777 people have tested positive, although experts have stressed that it is likely that hundreds of thousands more people are thought to be infected.
In Northern Ireland, broken down by council district area, Belfast has the highest number of confirmed cases at 89, according to the latest available data provided by the PHA yesterday.
The second highest area is Lisburn and Castlereagh with 39. Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon is placed third highest (29), followed by North Down and Ards (25) and Antrim and Newtownabbey in fifth place with 18.
Sixth is Fermanagh and Omagh (17), narrowly followed by Mid and East Antrim and Newry, Mourne and Down with both each having 16 confirmed cases, placing them joint seventh.
Ninth is Derry and Strabane with nine cases, with Mid Ulster and Causeway ranking 10th and 11th with seven and five cases respectively.
There are
also seven
cases
Derry & Strabane
Fermanagh & Omagh
Causeway Coast & Glens
Mid Ulster where the location is unknown.
Separate analysis of yesterday’s data, meanwhile, shows coronavirus is most prevalent in Lisburn and Castlereagh (27 cases per 100,000 population), followed by Belfast (25 cases per 100,000) and Ards and North Down (16 cases per 100,000).
Outlining his analysis of the PHA geographical spread of coronavirus, Dr Bamford insisted the graphic data fits with how a virus spreads among a population.
He told the Belfast Telegraph it was not surprising areas like Belfast, and Lisburn and Castlereagh, were recording as “virus hotspots”.
“It is what you would expect. Those are the areas with the most people, so that’s why there are more cases,” explained Dr Bamford.
“There’s more cases in Belfast because it’s more connected. There’s also a lot of testing areas in the east [of the region].”
He also warned that actual numbers of people here contracting the virus are likely to be much higher than recorded cases, due to low testing numbers.
“This [PHA graphic] is based on the number of confirmed cases, and we know that there is going to be at least 10 times the number of known cases.”
However, he stressed the numbers
Mid & East Antrim
Antrim & Newtownabbey
Armagh, Banbridge &
Craigavon
Belfast
Lisburn & Castlereagh
Newry, Mourne &
Down
North Down &
Ards could accurately reflect the spread of Covid-19 across Northern Ireland.
“These number of cases will reflect the percentage of a total, but they will maybe accurately reflect the picture,” said Dr Bamford.
Noting the lower number of confirmed cases, largely located in the west of Northern Ireland — indicated on the PHA graphic as white or light pink — the virologist emphasised that council areas with the lowest recorded cases should not be drawn into a false sense of security.
“Nowhere is safe. If we left this [fight against coronavirus where it is] and didn’t do anything, Derry and Strabane would [go darker on the map] as well as Mid Ulster,” he insisted.
“We’re dealing with a small number of confirmed cases; the difference between Derry and Strabane and Mid Ulster [changing from white to pink on the map], for example, could only be a single confirmed case,” he insisted.
The expert also cautioned against Northern Ireland overall descending into complacency as the lockdown continues.
“Northern Ireland as a whole is a couple of weeks behind the rest of the UK, even England and London. But we have the potential to reach those numbers and that kind of situation if we ignore the seriousness of coronavirus,” said the virologist.
Authorities here are making preparations in anticipation of a surge in cases. Work is under way to establish large, temporary field hospitals for coronavirus patients after modelling indicated that the current health service network in Northern Ireland may not have the capacity to cope at the peak of the outbreak. A soon-to-be-decommissioned Co Down Army base will be used as a temporary morgue if facilities are overwhelmed.