Second wave of Covid-19 could be lethal, projections suggest

tancing. We will keep this matter under review.

“We have been looking at the experiences of other countries — so, for example, in France they’re using the one-metre rule, and in Germany it’s 1.5 metres.

“There are different experiences across the world and we will be looking at those.”

In addition, Mrs Foster explained that childcare can be extended to those who work in the manufacturing and construction sectors.

People who work in those areas are now defined as key workers

NORTHERN Ireland could be hit by a much greater wave of deaths if Covid-19 spreads rapidly.

A modelling exercise by health officials indicates the potential for the virus to peak again as early as October. Under one scenario, up to 800 patients could be in intensive care units then.

The projections are based on the ‘R’ number — the virus’s reproductive rate — climbing above 1, and if mitigation measures fail to work.

Health Minister Robin Swann said Covid-19 remains ready to strike again, “perhaps with even greater ferocity than before”.

The Department of Health data examines the impact of the ‘R’ number starting to rise.

‘R’ is the number of people that each infected case, on average, passes the virus on to. It must remain below one to avoid exponential growth.

The briefing paper states that modelling suggests that “R remains significantly below 1 at present”. It is estimated at between 0.5 and 0.9.

The number of people in the community currently infected with Covid-19 is estimated at between 300 and 2,000. The large range is because of uncertainty about the percentage of patients who are asymptomatic.

It warns over 95% of the population remain susceptible to Covid-19 and any subsequent waves could be significantly worse.

The briefing paper explores the potential scenarios if the ‘R’ number starts to creep above 1, although it warns ‘R’ is less reliable and useful at very low levels of infection.

Its figures are not a prediction of what will happen. This will depend on public compliance with any restrictions, policy decisions and other factors such as the behaviour of the virus and the development of effective treatments or a vaccine.

Health officials

have

used modelling to show what would happen if ‘R’ rose to 1.2, 1.3 or 1.5 from June 8, and measures to suppress the epidemic were not taken or were ineffective. The modelling extends to the end of 2020.

It states:

If ‘R’ rose to 1.5, the epidemic would peak in early October with close to 800 patients requiring ICU support in early October. Under this scenario, modelling suggests four-week restrictions may need to be put in place in mid-august, late October and then February 2021.

If ‘R’ rose to 1.3, the epidemic would peak in early December, with over 300 patients requiring ICU support.

The paper notes that in either scenario “deaths would be much greater than in wave one of the epidemic”.

If ‘R’ rose to 1.2, the epidemic would still be increasing at the end of 2020 and over 100 patients would be in critical care.

Mr Swann praised society’s

“herculean efforts” to stem the virus, but warned complacency remains the biggest enemy in the continuing battle against Covid-19.

“It is impossible to stress enough that this terrible disease, which has already claimed the lives of so many of our loved ones, has not gone away,” he said.

“It remains ready to strike again, perhaps with even greater ferocity than before.

“We only have to look at the modelling, which was released recently by my department, to see that as we emerge from this phase of the pandemic, we most do so with caution and an appreciation that the war is far from won.”

Previous modelling at the outset of the pandemic predicted 15,000 deaths in what Mr Swann described as a “nightmare, worst case” scenario. It was later downgraded to 3,000, then 1,500.

Based on the latest Nisra figures, 779 deaths linked to Covid-19 occurred here as of June 5.