Experts warn a second wave could lead to 120,000 UK deaths in ‘worst-case scenario’

A SECOND wave of coronavirus infections this winter could be more serious than the first, with 120,000 hospital deaths in a “reasonable worst-case scenario”, scientists advising the Government have warned.

A new report from the Academy of Medical Sciences, commissioned by the Government’s chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance (right), says action must be taken now to mitigate the potential for a second peak of Covid-19.

It argues that hospitals could potentially see 120,000 Covid-19 deaths between September and next June at the same time as battling a surge in demand due to usual winter pressures, including flu.

The report, from 37 scientists and academics, acknowledges there is a high degree of uncertainty about how the Covid-19 epidemic will evolve in the UK over the coming months, but sets out a “reasonable worst-case scenario” that would see the R-rate rise to 1.7 from September.

The R refers to the number of people an infected person can be expected to pass the virus on to.

The academic modelling suggests there could be a peak in hospital admissions and deaths in January and February 2021, similar to or worse than the first wave in spring 2020. It does not include deaths in the community or care homes.

Professor Stephen Holgate, a Medical Research Council clinical professor of immunopharmacology who led the study, said: “This is not a prediction, but it is a possibility. The modelling suggests that deaths could be higher with a new wave of Covid-19 this winter, but the risk of this happening could be reduced if we take action immediately.

“With relatively low numbers of Covid-19 cases at the moment, this is a critical window of opportunity to help us prepare for the worst.”

He said action that was needed before winter sets in included flu vaccination for the vulnerable and health and social care workers.

NHS Test and Trace must be “upscaled in the winter”, he added, saying more people will need to be tested as winter illnesses can often have similar symptoms to Covid-19.

He also called for a “rapid system of monitoring” in the UK to stop local outbreaks when they occur.

The team also looked at less serious scenarios of what may happen, with an R-rate of 1.1 leading to 1,300 hospital deaths between September and June.

They also modelled an R of 1.5, which would lead to 74,800 hospital deaths.

Prof Azra Ghani, chairwoman in infectious disease epidemiology at Imperial College London, who worked on the study, said the 120,000 deaths figure was not a prediction, but could happen.

“(We tried) to capture something we think might happen if absolutely everybody almost forgot about Covid, started going back to our old ways and we started to move around in the same way,” she said. “It’s really to get a sense of what it could look like and why we must remember Covid has not gone away... and why we must act now.”