With the outlook a lot less optimistic as fears rise for a second wave of Covid-19, Gareth Cross looks at the current situation in NI and talks to health and economy experts on what they think the future may hold for us

On May 12 the Executive published its five-stage “recovery strategy”.

Included in the first step of the plan were proposals for groups of four to six people to meet outside, churches to be permitted to open for private prayer, outdoor sports including golf and tennis to resume and more people encouraged to return to work. Garden centres and large outdoor retailers were also permitted to reopen.

In step two, up to 10 people could meet outdoors, while two to four people could meet indoors for short periods. Sports training would be allowed to resume and non-food retailers would be allowed to reopen.

Step three would enable up to 30 people to meet outdoors along with the reopening of museums and galleries, with theatre rehearsals allowed to resume. Large indoor gatherings would be authorised, while the phased return of office working would be encouraged. Children were also set to return to school on a part-time basis.

In step four church services and behind closed doors sport would return, with hairdressers and gyms also able to reopen. All pupils were set to return to school on alternative days to allow for social distancing, with learning at home continuing. Leisure centres were also set to reopen, with concerts back on a limited basis.

In the final step of the plan, competitive sport was to return, while everyone would be encouraged to return to work if possible. Restaurants, cafes, pubs and nightclubs would be permitted to reopen on a limited basis with restricted concerts also taking place. Younger pupils were set to return to school full-time, while public transport would return to a full schedule.

Following the unveiling of the five step plan, Mrs Foster said she hoped that the final stage could be reached before December.

However she later clarified her comments and said she hoped Northern Ireland would be “long past” step five before December.

“I would be very much hopeful of that, unless there has been a second peak or a second wave of this,” she said.

The first restrictions lifted were the reopening of garden and recycling centres from May 18. Churches were allowed to reopen for private prayer, while drive-in services were also permitted. Marriage ceremonies involving someone suffering from a terminal illness were also allowed.

From June 8, small outdoor wedding ceremonies were allowed, as were advance hotel bookings and smaller shops were given the go-ahead to reopen.

Northern Ireland became the first part of the UK to allow all of its non-essential shops, including those in shopping centres, to reopen. This happened from June 12.

From June 29, churches were allowed to reopen for socially distanced services.

On July 3, hotels, bars and restaurants reopened their doors after pressure from the hospitality industry when the Republic of Ireland allowed their businesses to reopen.

Hair salons, barbers and nail bars were given the go-ahead to open their doors on July 6.

Competitive sport was allowed to return from July 10 with the Irish Cup final between Glentoran and Ballymena United on July 31 the first game in the UK to have spectators present.

Gyms and leisure centres also reopened.

From July 24 up to 10 people from four households could meet indoors in private homes, while up to 30 people could meet up outdoors.

Shielding ended for those at an increased risk of catching the virus on July 31.

On August 6, Education Minister Peter Weir announced that all pupils would be returning to school full-time at the beginning of the new term at the end of August.

Pupils beginning years 7, 12 and 14 will return on August 24 while all other pupils will return from August 31.

Despite hopes that ‘wet’ pubs and bars that do not serve food would be allowed to open on August 10, this was pushed back following a rise in the ‘R’ number and a similar decision in the Republic of Ireland.

The wearing of face masks in Northern Ireland’s shops became mandatory on August 10, albeit it has not been enforced. Masks are also mandatory on public transport — although again enforcement is largely non-existent — and will be “strongly encouraged” for activities involving large numbers of staff or pupils in an enclosed space.

Queen’s University Belfast (QUB) virologist Dr Connor Bamford (below) said that he believed Northern Ireland’s coronavirus lockdown had been successful.

He said that the virus had been “slowed down” with cases being reported in single and double digits most days.

However, while lockdown had worked well, he believes the virus was always present in Northern Ireland.

“We were always detecting cases and we were always seeing small clusters that would pop up in different parts of the country,” he said.

Dr Bamford said it was anticipated that, as restrictions were relaxed, cases would rise because the virus was present and most people remained susceptible. He said contact tracing had played a key role in identifying new cases and clusters in Northern Ireland.

The virologist, who emerged as one of Northern Ireland’s experts on the virus, said a dynamic approach was needed to deal with the virus going forward.

“We’re not out of the woods yet, certainly we would like to be able to reduce restrictions safely, but then we might have to bring in more restrictions as has been seen in other parts of the UK,” Dr Bamford said. “I would imagine nothing is off the table, we could be looking at lockdowns by city, or county or even given the size of Northern Ireland they may just decide to lockdown the entire country, it will depend purely on the circumstances surrounding the outbreak.”

Dr Bamford said the virus seemed to now be affecting more younger people as they were taking more risks as lockdown eased.

“We just can’t go back completely to normal until we have a very good vaccine,” he said.

“We have to think of it as the ‘new normal’, it isn’t going to be forever, there will be a time when we won’t worry about Covid, but until then this is what the new normal has to be.”

However the virologist said he didn’t believe we were seeing the beginning of a second wave of the virus.

“I wouldn’t say that at this stage, but you’ll see with things like schools going back or large changes to lockdown, they all might sort of come together and you might see something that looks like the beginning of a second wave or a large outbreak,” he said.

Dr Bamford praised the Executive’s fluid approach to managing the pandemic. However, he believes a policy of eradicating the virus should be pursued.

“I think more could be done to get rid of the virus in Northern Ireland and then it might be safer to reopen schools,” he said.

“At the minute we’re all sort of responding to outbreaks, what happens if we really went after the virus and eradicated the virus from the country?

“I think there’s a lot to be said