We need facts about so-called ‘R’ number

WE thought that government by carve-up was as bad as it gets. We were wrong. They have added another layer of opaqueness: government by secret algorithm.

The media are rightly exercised over the exam grades secret algorithm, but there is a much more deadly one: the algorithm which generates the rate of infection of Covid-19 (the socalled ‘R’ number) seems to be a closely guarded secret.

Some time ago a senior adviser at the Department of Health went on the radio and pronounced, with great mathematical precision, to two decimal places, that R was .79, but added that there was a margin of error of two (presumably, only in the upwards direction).

As a retired statistician this aroused my curiosity to see the algorithm. I thought that Nisra were the obvious people to ask. Nisra passed my query to an eminent professor in the Department of Health, who gave me some superfluous information, but was unwilling or unable to show me the algorithm.

I emailed him back directly to point out that he had not answered the question, but he failed to reply.

I went back to Nisra to ask again to see the algorithm and they “confirmed” that they “do not hold” this information (yes, they are the statistics agency) and suggested that I try the Department of Health.

I went back to Nisra again to ask whether they were involved in calculating ‘R’ and they replied that they have statisticians who are seconded to other departments, such as the Department of Health. They evaded the question.

I went back to the Department of Health to ask again to have sight of the algorithm and they “confirmed” that they “do not hold” this information. Do I detect a coordinated response?

I emailed the permanent secretary at the Department of Health to ask who does hold this information, or who supplies it.

That was weeks ago and, to date, I have had no reply, or even an automated acknowledgment.

I emailed the private office of the Minister of Health and his personal secretary replied that the department was too busy to reply, but that some official would consider it.

All my requests were labelled ‘Freedom of Information’.

Since the ‘R’ number is fundamental to public policy I think it essential, in the interests of transparency and public confidence in that policy that the algorithm which generates it is in the public domain, where it can be scrutinised by independent statisticians as to robustness and fitness for purpose.

My great fear is that the ‘R’ number quoted is generated by some formula pulled down from the internet to plug a few numbers into and that nobody in the Department of Health, or indeed Nisra, really understands the basis of the calculation.

There seems to be a coordinated strategy to frustrate the provisions of the Freedom of Information Act in the hope that the Commissioner will grant some leeway due to Covid-19.

So, can we believe the ‘R’ number?

Can we trust initiatives based on it, such as track and trace?

BRIAN MACLOCHLAINN Glenarm, Co Antrim