Munster are taking a huge punt, but I fear it could well go south
COMMENT
THERE has been a lot of mid-season optimism about Munster in the leadup to the resumption of the PRO14. They may have a decent roster and may beat Leinster tomorrow but I do not like where they are going — at all.
Where Munster are at now is reminiscent of the Peter Ridsdale/david O’leary formula — spend big, gamble on success and worry about the consequences afterwards. Leeds only returned to the Premier League this season after an eternity in the Championship and some hair-raising financial scrapes.
Munster’s splurge into the transfer market may pay dividends but in the long-term it could exacerbate the situation.
RG Snyman and Damian de Allende are big acquisitions and there may have been a kerfuffle to get them over the line with the IRFU — but the argument for doing so would have been plausible at first sight.
Look back over Munster’s failings at the penultimate stages, particularly against Saracens, and the answers were simple — they were a powerhouse second-row short up front and missing a guy who could straighten the line and get over the gain-line.
The two South African buyins were the answer to Munster’s shortcomings but at what cost do they come?
The first thing to observe is that Munster have financial challenges and have had to re-engineer the loan on Thomond. Even the faithful waver when there hasn’t been a trophy since 2011. The fall in attendances has been significant.
The solution is spend and win and they will return. Snyman and De Allende are current World Cup holders and would have been on huge dough in Japan. Munster’s sugar daddy would have had to have opened the wallet. If
Beauden Barrett was promised $1.5m with the Suntory Sungoliaths next season, then our two South African émigrés would be silly to come here for anything less than $750k. The IRFU would have to cover some of that which would rankle. It’s abiggamble!
The second element is that this push is purely geared towards winning the Heineken Cup. Procuring Irish players for Ireland — well, that’s Leinster’s problem.
Something that has been ruminating with me since CVC started buying up our game is that why would they buy a minority interest in the PRO14 — it’s a turkey.
Christmas, though, shouldn’t hold any fears. The question that has to be asked is why did CVC buy a stake in the PRO14 and the Premiership and not in the Heineken Cup? The answer is simple — they have no plans for the Heineken Cup.
The Heineken Cup board know this and the competition will end as soon as CVC make their move and start up a new competition. If Munster want to win the Heineken Cup, they will have to do it within the life span of their two big South African signings’ contracts.
One of the things you do when you makeabig investment is make sure your investment can perform. De Allende has picked up quite a number of injuries and arrived in Limerick with a nagging groin injury. Is he yet another injury-prone player that Munster have forked out big dough for?
He will play the Rugby Championship in New Zealand in a bubble and will, after quarantine, be available to Munster in January. How certain are we that he will play more than a dozen games a season? Is that value?
Rudolph the Red is a different kettle of fish. He has the constitution of somebody who only injures other people, not himself. The only question I have about him is why is he not a starter for South Africa? I suspect he will have a pronounced influence for Munster.
Therearetwoissueshere— one is that it is conceivable that with an injury or two you could have a situation where the only Munster men in the Munster pack would be Dave Kilcoyne and James Cronin. A Kiwi, two Leinster men and four South Africans. Not good for Munster or Ireland. No guarantee that you start winning again either.
The other thing is that Snyman (below) is there as a key player. He does have a World Cup winner’s medal in his pocket — but he is, at 25, still a kid. He is not a Scott Fardy or Brad Thorn who are dripping with experience.
This is part of the conflict. Munster have to win now and be successful again — now.
Munster are guaranteed nothing this or next season. Joey Carbery is on the hamster wheel of injury and can’t seem to get off it. JJ Hanrahan is a long way short of Heineken Cup standard, and you figure that a 43-year-old Ronan O’gara would still be a better bet.
Again the question needs to be asked whether Munster will invest the time into Jack Crowley and Ben Healy. If you don’t have a quality out-half then you are going nowhere.
To compound things, I am not sure Munster’s head coach is up to the job.
Win or lose, the season is already shaping up to be box office.