My heart says Ulster but I’m just not so sure they can do it: Blair
Hero of 1999 admits Kingspan side look off in quest to reach PRO14 final
LIKE most observers, Mark Blair finds himself feeling rather thrown by what he has seen since Ulster have taken to the pitch again.
The 1999 European Cup-winning Ulster lock, who also happens to have played for Edinburgh — as well as the defunct Borders — and now lives not far from the Scottish capital, has been somewhat alarmed at the province’s defeats and off-colour performances against Connacht and Leinster.
“Can Ulster find some sort of form for Saturday against Edinburgh? I just don’t know,” said Blair, who played 55 times for Ulster between 1998 and 2003.
“The last two performances from Ulster have been very underwhelming.
“They’ve been stuck in first gear since they came back.
“Maybe they (post-lockdown) have just not switched back on again as quickly as other teams have.
“And with the situation regarding the Academy players at Ulster testing positive for Covid, you would wonder what overall impact that might have had.”
While praising the progress the province have made under Dan Mcfarland, Blair is not so convinced that their second successive Guinness PRO14 semi-final since the former Connacht, Glasgow and Scotland assistant coach took over — 2019’s visit to Glasgow ended pretty badly — is going to be any better this time around for the visitors, even with different opposition and the venue at a behind-closed-doors Murrayfield.
“We all go into this weekend with a bit of trepidation in terms of which Ulster are going to turn up,” the 47-year-old maintained in the wake of the two inter-provincial losses in Dublin.
And with Ulster’s record in the league’s knockout stages nothing to write home about — they last made it through to the final in 2013 — there is genuine concern that they may falter again.
“But I do still think it will be close, and that Ulster and Edinburgh are fairly evenly matched, but it will probably come down to confidence and I think that’s where Edinburgh are stronger. Basically my heart says Ulster but my head says Edinburgh,” said the Armagh native.
“But with Ulster the potential is always there, and with the players they have they can move through the gears again.
“The problem has been that Ulster’s big-name players are either injured or so far just not on form.
“Earlier in the season John Cooney was sensational, and he’s the sort of player Ulster need to now have at the top of their game for the knockout stages.
“Not having Iain Henderson is a blow, but Marcell Coetzee rarely plays a bad game and can sustain a high level of performance.
“Having said that, Ulster can’t over-rely on certain individuals — they all need to be firing. Ulster still have a good squad on paper. They have international players and don’t lack experience.”
Blair, who coaches at his local club outside Edinburgh, still closely follows his home province but has also seen Richard Cockerill’s side close up and was actually a citing commissioner at a couple of their PRO14 games prior to lockdown.
“Over the years Edinburgh have always wanted to play a really decent brand of rugby but potentially haven’t had the finishing skills that the other teams have had,” stated Blair, who also played with French club Narbonne. “They now have a good squad, and with Blair Kinghorn and Duhan van der Merwe they have much more threat and it’s really been a long time since Edinburgh have had such a potent back three.”
Their pack is pretty decent as well, with the marvellously destructive flanker Hamish Watson, the presence at No.8 of Viliame Mata and the grizzled WP Nel at tighthead prop.
It’s also a first for the Murrayfield-based squad in terms of making the PRO14’S last-four, though, of course, due to the brakes being put on the season during lockdown, the truncated way this campaign is now being wound up has also meant that sides have gone straight to the semi-finals and avoided the initial tier of play-offs.
“Edinburgh will have more form and confidence, but I’d just always feel there is still that bit of mental block for the Scottish teams when it comes to the Irish provinces, though, admittedly, Ulster have not fared well against Glasgow in recent knockout games,” said Blair.
Blair, though, also points out that Edinburgh are in unknown territory in terms of being one game away from a PRO14 final and, as such, could arrive on Saturday evening carrying their own mental baggage.
“Look, Ulster can go into this game and give it a real go,” he added.
As for winning?
Well, he’s just not so sure.
‘Maybe they have just not switched back on again’