Next year’s census likely to delay border poll taking place: expert
Assumptions about whether citizens would accept unification ‘now more complicated’
NEXT year’s census — which coincides with the centenary of Northern Ireland — is likely to delay a border poll, a university academic has predicted.
Dr Laurence Cooley said questions introduced in the last two censuses have complicated assumptions about whether citizens would support Irish unification. A long-held view is that the first census where those from a Catholic background outnumber those from Protestant backgrounds could lead to a border poll.
But in an article for The British Journal of Politics and International Relations, the University of Birmingham political scientist said a question added in 2001 on ‘religion brought up in’ has resulted in more people being classified as Protestant or Catholic than would be the case using the original religion question alone.
He argued t hat t he re l i - gious background question has strengthened ‘two communities’ interpretations of census results and delayed the apparent disappearance of the Protestant majority, whilst an extra question on national identity, added in 2011, has further muddied the waters.
Dr Cooley said that “given the combination of the border poll provision in the Good Friday Agreement and volatility created by Brexit, the political relevance of census results has increased”.
However, the new questions on religious background and national identity “may well point in opposite directions”, as the latter is likely to be much less binary than the former. “The census could therefore confuse as much as it clarifies when it comes to a potential border poll.”
His study said Brexit has influenced the issue because the UK Government insists that the UK must leave the EU as one, but the Good Friday Agreement was based on the assumption of
EU membership.
He argued that division between support for ‘Remain’ among nationalists and support for ‘ Leave’ among unionists has renewed speculation about Irish unification in recent years and Brexit has heightened expectations that Northern Ireland might be reaching a ‘tipping point’ for Irish unity.
In the last census, held in 2011, 45.1% of the population specified that they were Catholic or brought up Catholic, and 48.4% were from a Protestant or other Christian background.
However, the results of the new national identity question were more complicated: 39.9% considered themselves British only, 25.3% Irish only, 20.9% Northern Irish only, with others specifying multiple identities.
Former Sinn Fein MLA turned political commentator Daithi Mckay said he believes the likelihood of a border poll has increased for two reasons — Brexit and uncertainty about the economic future, plus the fact that there’s no clear majority in the Assembly anymore for unionism.
“And recent polls have shown up different results in terms of whether the public here would prefer to see a united Ireland, but it’s not a clear-cut majority for the union anymore,” he said.
DUP MLA Jim Wells said a Catholic majority in the next census would not be a Catholic voting majority. He said many aspirational nationalists might not want a united Ireland yet, while a significant number of Catholics may want to stay in the UK.
“The nationalist might say, ‘Yes, in some distant future it is something I’ll give serious consideration to.’
“But what possible benefit to the nationalist community is the turmoil Northern Ireland will be thrown into if you had a border referendum that produced a majority of one for a united Ireland?”