Pinpointing hotspots vital in helping science get to grips with virus

NORTHERN Ireland is about to go into a strict lockdown that is likely to last at least six weeks.

The most recent circuit breaker did very little, if anything, to tackle the number of Covid-19 cases — as is demonstrated by recent figures.

Statistics released yesterday by the Department of Health showed another 13 virus-related deaths and 505 more cases here.

Each day, around 2pm, the department publishes its Covid-19 dashboard, which provides an overview of the situation in Northern Ireland, including a breakdown of positive cases by age and the number of active care home outbreaks.

It also includes information on the number of cases by council area over the previous seven days, which is particularly useful as it provides an insight into any areas of concern.

What the figures do not reveal, however, is the number of Covid-19 related deaths according to postcode — a much more clearly defined geographic area.

This information comes instead from the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (Nisra).

Given its role as the principal source of official statistics and social research here, it is best placed to collate Covid-19 death rates.

Earlier this year, it was tasked by the Department of Health to gather these figures to help provide as clear a picture as possible of the impact of the virus.

And the latest information, obtained by the Belfast Telegraph, has made for grim reading.

By December 4 this year, Covid-19 had been mentioned on the death certificate of 1,480 deaths registered in Northern Ireland. Of these, 429 people lived in Belfast and the greater Belfast area.

Given that Belfast has consistently had a high number of positive cases, this figure is not particularly surprising.

What is slightly more unexpected is that east Belfast, including Stormont and Ballyhackamore, has been badly affected.

Health outcomes are traditionally worse in areas of higher deprivation, but both these parts of the city are considered fairly affluent.

So, what could be the reason for the higher death toll?

It is likely that many of the sprawling properties surrounding Parliament Buildings are home to older people, who we know are much more likely to become seriously ill if they catch Covid-19.

Looking across the figures for all of Northern Ireland, a glance through the statistics and the postcodes with higher numbers of deaths can largely be explained by a series of deadly care home outbreaks in those areas.

And then, of course, there is BT47 and BT48, where there were 73 deaths registered by December 4 with Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate.

Both these postcodes cover Derry and beyond, which was hammered by the virus in October.

If you look at BT49, which covers Limavady and Ballykelly, there were 30 Covid-19 deaths.

It is likely that their close proximity to Derry played a part in the not insignificant death rate.

These statistics are vital in providing us with more information about the impact of the virus.

But it is more important to remember that behind all of the figures are grieving families, lives lost and suffering that may well have been avoided.