An alternative to lockdown

WITHOUT an effective traceand-isolate program, or a vaccine, lockdowns only delay infections and postpone the attainment of herd immunity.

Fewer people die of Covid per week, but if the lockdown/open up cycles go on for long enough, we still get to 3,000 dead and about 15,000 hospitalised by Covid here in Northern Ireland to achieve herd immunity. We just avoid crashing the hospitals along the way.

Perhaps this will take an additional 10,000/420 x 17 = 406 days to achieve. What deaths would occur due to lockdowns and knock-on effects during this time? A year’s worth of undiagnosed cancer and poor treatment of other chronic conditions?

But, if we crash the hospitals, those unfortunates still don’t get treated. The economy suffers during this time, unemployment increases, suicide and other attendant illness occurs. We now have a way out of this double bind.

The vaccine will protect the vulnerable, estimated to number about 200,000 in Northern Ireland alone. If we can organise and inoculate 15,000 a week, it would take 13 weeks, so in about three months all the vulnerable should be immune and no more lockdowns would be needed to protect the hospitals.

If it takes five minutes to inoculate a patient, one person working a six-hour day for five days can do 360 per week; 84 dedicated nurses could meet this timetable; more would shorten the program. This must roll out as fast as possible.

During that period, the number of lockdowns needed would depend on our compliance with hands-face-space. This is similar to the very effective Japanese 3C campaign: avoid crowds, avoid closed spaces and cover face. If we all do that scrupulously, then we would not need to lock down at all.

After vaccination, everything can reopen and we save thousands of lives.

DR NICK CANNING Coleraine, Co Londonderry