From high hopes to hammer blows, how Covid proved impossible to predict
PREDICTING the path of the continuing Covid-19 crisis has proven to be an almost impossible task, as 2020 showed.
With Northern Ireland preparing itself for extra restrictions due to a fresh surge in cases, the Belfast Telegraph examines some of the predictions and plans that didn’t quite come to pass since the outbreak of the virus.
March 19, 2020
As the virus was spreading rapidly across Northern Ireland, Health Minister Robin Swann stated there could be 15,000 deaths in the country in a “worst case nightmare scenario”.
His stark message came in the wake of the first Covid-19 related death in Northern Ireland.
Thankfully, his prediction has not come true thanks to the public pulling together and staying at home during the first lockdown.
As of yesterday, the total number of Covid-19 related deaths has reached 1,384 here since the beginning of the outbreak, based on Department of Health figures.
May 13
First Minister Arlene Foster said she expected Northern Ireland to reach stage five of its pathway to recovery “long before” December 5.
“I would be very much hopeful that, unless there has been a second peak or second wave of this,” she stated.
Stage five would have seen nightclubs open their doors, concerts happening, spectators attending sporting events, people returning to work and the hospitality sector reopened.
However, the country found itself in a two week circuit-breaker lockdown from
November 27. Restrictions were later loosened in the run up to the festive season but that has led to the current spike in virus cases.
August 6
Pubs which do not serve food — ‘wet pubs’ — were busy preparing to open their doors for Monday, August 10, but were hit by a hammer blow as the Executive changed the date to September 1.
However, this date was also cancelled because of a rise in Covid cases.
Mrs Foster and Deputy First Minister Michelle O’neill finally threw wet pubs a lifeline and permitted them to reopen from September 21.
John Bittles, who owns Bittles Bar in Belfast city centre, estimated he lost around £100,000 due to loss of trade.
August 13
Education Minister Peter Weir stood by his assertion that the controversial A-level grading system was fair following a backlash from principals and pupils after exams were cancelled last summer because of the pandemic.
The Council for the Curriculum, Examinations and Assessment (CCEA) then failed to uphold over a third of teachers’ estimated grades.
Just five days later, Mr Weir performed a U-turn and allowed teachers’ predicted grades to be used after strong political opposition to use centralised standardisation.
November 24
Families in Northern Ireland were told they could reunite for five days over Christmas after ministers from across the UK agreed to relax coronavirus restrictions.
Up to three households were initially permitted to mix in bubbles from December 23 to December 27.
Christmas plans were then thrown into disarray on December 21 after the Executive agreed to reduce the five day bubbling arrangements to just one day.
The decision came as health officials said they believed a new strain of Covid-19 was circulating in the region.
November 27
Northern Ireland entered a twoweek circuit breaker to slow the spread of Covid-19 and protect
health services. Mrs Foster said the “tough, carefully timed, intervention” was needed to give “the best chance to have a safe and happy Christmas and further into the new year period”.
Unfortunately, the circuit breaker didn’t have the desired effect.
Chief Scientific Adviser Prof Ian Young highlighted how the figures for Belfast traffic congestion during the brief lockdown was simply too high and showed the people did not stay at home. Chief Medical Officer Dr Michael Mcbride said “we are not where we need to be”.
December 18
The Education Minister was heavily criticised after informing principals that schools would be fully reopening in January without any further restrictions. Mr Weir insisted that all schools should reopen during the first week of January.
But like many other plans throughout the pandemic, the DUP MLA announced on New Year’s Eve that he was left with no other choice but to make another last minute decision to extend school closures.
“Just when you think there’s a light at the end of the tunnel, Covid builds another tunnel,” he said.
‘Tough rules needed to have safe festive period’