Money saved in pandemic ‘to boost housing market’
Economist believes cash built up during lockdown will make deposits more affordable
CASH saved during lockdown due to a lack of holidays, socialising and commuting could buoy the housing market in 2021, an economist says.
A report today by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) and Ulster Bank says the market ended 2020 with rising activity and prices, but with some uncertainty about what 2021 would bring.
But Neil Gibson, chief economist of EY Ireland, said that cash saved due to lack of avenues for spending could make the purchase of a new home more viable for some people by providing them with a bigger deposit.
According to Bank of England economist Andy Haldane, UK households have saved about £100bn amid the pandemic.
The local housing market performed better than expected last year after a crash was predicted at the start of lockdown.
The Northern Ireland property price index from Land & Property Services said the average price had grown by about 2.4% to £143,205.
Mr Gibson said a steady market was likely this year.
He added: “I don’t think we’re looking at a property price fall because of the amount of cash people have built up in their savings for those whose livelihoods haven’t been disrupted because of Covid.
“For young people who’ve regrettably missed a year of socialising and spending, and the cash that car sales figures tell us people haven’t been spending on new cars, all of that cash has to find its way somewhere. That may mean people accelerating their housebuying plans by two or three years and finding themselves with enough saved for a deposit.”
Mr Gibson also expects changes in lifestyle brought by the pandemic — the need to work from home for example — would also continue to boost demand for new homes with space for a study, or with a garden.
And he said the strong performance of the market in 2020 was likely to increase confidence. But factors such as the risk of rising unemployment when the furlough scheme ends would hold back a full boom.
He argued some parents would be feeling in a better cash position to help their grown-up offspring out with a deposit, and that the plight of older people during the pandemic could inspire some grown-up offspring to want their parents to live closer by.
Robert Mulligan, director of Farleigh Property, said it had four housing developments either on site or in planning, including on the north coast, on Belfast’s Malone Road and in Moira, Co Down.
He said the developments were being amended to reflect changing demands, adding: “On those which we have been able to tweak, we have incorporated ideas which help working from home, such as making areas downstairs more open by taking walls down in the kitchen area, allowing for people to maybe sit in the kitchen on their laptop while looking out on the garden.
“We’ve split some bedrooms upstairs to create a home office and given buyers the option to convert a room into a home study with built in desks.”
Estate agent Simon Brien said the housing market had bounced back after the first forced lockdown.
“You could see huge levels of enquiries for different properties — people deciding after having time on their hands that they wanted a bigger garden, a fourth bedroom or a study,” he said.
“That was evident across all locations.
“The s t amp duty holi day helped but was by no means the only driver, it was lifestyle as well, all very human decisions.
“We had a massive increase in people returning to NI from England, perhaps those in their late 30s or early 40s.
“House prices are not racing away, and nor do you want them to. Houses are selling steadily and there are no indications that there will be a house price fall. They will probably rise by between 2-4% this year. There’s no rationale for massive growth, houses selling because of people’s decision to move.”
Estate agent John Minnis said: “When the pandemic first struck we were looking at headlines saying that the bottom had fallen out and the whole picture was pretty bleak, but as soon as we got back to work after three months it became obvious that things were going very, very well and we were very, very busy.”
Mr Minnis said uncertainty over Brexit up until October 2019 when the NI Protocol was agreed had also held up movement, and people returning from England accounted for about 60% of their family home sales.
He added: “The cat’s out of the bag that people can retain their higher English wage, work remotely and get a house that before would have been way above their radar, all while getting their kids into a great education system.”
He said that, overall, transactions in his agency were up by about 9% in 2020 compared to 2019, but predictions were difficult.