Biden White House could be good news for NI, says economist
THE incoming Joe Biden administration in the US could spell good news for Northern Ireland’s economy, according to an expert.
While the United States and Northern Ireland have always had a close relationship, the president-elect’s Irish roots and long-standing support for the Good Friday Agreement could bring benefits, according to Dr Esmond Birnie, chief economist at Ulster University.
Last year the US was Northern Ireland’s second largest international export market, with £1.2bn in goods going across the Atlantic. This is compared with £3.2bn to the Republic of Ireland, £0.8bn to Canada and £0.5bn to Germany. Imports here from the US were also substantial at £0.8bn.
Almost 30,000 workers are also employed by US firms here.
Dr Birnie said exports from Northern Ireland to the US could increase as a result of the $1,900bn financial stimulus package Mr Biden will try and push through Congress.
Back in 2017, President Donald Trump decreased corporation tax from 30% to 21% to support business, although Mr Biden may reduce this back to around 28%, a move Dr Birnie said would make Northern Ireland a much more competitive location for US firms.
One potential bump in the road is the post-brexit free trade agreement (FTA) between the US and UK. Dr Birnie warned that it is unclear if this will include Northern Ireland, or be confined to GB only.
He posited that one of the key US demands will be increased access to the UK market for its food products.
“Given that one of the key aspects of NI’S Protocol is that we are still applying all the EU’S animal and food safety standards it is hard to see how NI could allow in US agricultural products,” Dr Birnie said.
“Unless the Biden Administration is prepared to be extraordinarily generous to NI it is possible that the US-UK FTA will turn out to be a US-GB FTA.
“More immediately, Bushmills whiskey has been caught up in the US-EU trade war which followed from on Airbus-boeing disputes about aviation subsidies. The Biden transitional team have indicated that the 25% tariff on Scotch and Bushmills whiskey coming into the US will stay in place.”
Northern Ireland’s aerospace, maritime and IT companies could also receive a boost as a result of US defence spending, said Dr Birnie.