Divorce: As SNP piles on pressure, only a fool would think the Union isn’t in peril
AS always with polls and surveys, those on either side of the Union versus united Ireland debate will take what they fancy from the Lucid Talk/sunday Times results.
Advocates of a border poll will delight that a majority favours the prospect. This builds momentum.
Supporters of the Union might point out that the poll shows a fall in support for Irish unity of just over 3% from the Lucidtalk/the Detail poll last year. So much for the oft-vaunted post-brexit surge towards a united Ireland.
Differences between levels of support for a united Ireland have been large across the polls.
Lucidtalk regularly reports backing above 40%. The firm can point to how its party percentage vote shares were virtually correct in advance of the last election.
Social Market Research Belfast, for the University of Liverpool ESRC 2019 election study, did likewise after the election without having to weight for party support, which suggests good sampling. It found support for Irish unity at 29%.
The Life and Times survey found only 22% of electors wanting a united Ireland. It was criticised for placing Michelle O’neill’s party at only 9% of the electorate — that is all those on the register, regardless of whether they vote. That put Sinn Fein below the SDLP and as such was likely to under-report backing for unity.
Face-to-face surveys — used (in a pre-covid era) by the University of Liverpool and Life and Times — are criticised for interviewer bias which inhibits an interviewee saying they want a united Ireland. Online surveys are criticised for containing the self-enrolled, politically committed, not necessarily representative of the entire electorate.
Face-to-face surveys find higher numbers of ‘don’t knows’.
Contrary to myth, many are not obsessed by the constitutional question and tell the interviewer that when they get the knock on the door.
Some of these ‘don’t knows’ might nonetheless vote in a crunch referendum. Turnout for the Good Friday Agreement poll was a whopping 81%. And at the Scottish independence referendum 85% voted. So we need to know what election non-voters think.
There is some common ground across the polls. Face-to-face and online studies suggest a bare majority for the Union. The split in the polling evidence is whether those not identifying as pro-union are pro-united Ireland or contain many who are unsure.
Only a fool would think that the Union is not in peril. The pressure from Scotland is immense. Another huge SNP election triumph looks imminent, increasing the pressure. If Scotland departs, surely Northern Ireland will follow? There will be a domino effect, collapsing the UK as a political structure.
Under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement, the Secretary of State, Brandon Lewis, is obliged to call a border poll only when he perceives there is a majority in favour of a united Ireland. There is no precision over how he reaches that judgment. He is not required to call a poll just because a majority want one. Some unionists might want a poll because they think they will win.
Converted into betting odds, the latest poll suggests the odds on a vote in favour of a united Ireland are short, at around 5/4. Personally, I would give anyone 2/1, as, on the balance of polling evidence, I doubt there is a majority in favour of unification yet. Any takers?
But those odds may change. And remember there can be a border poll every seven years, in which republicans only need to be lucky once.
Jon Tonge is Professor of Politics at the University of Liverpool and director of the last four Northern Ireland General Election surveys