Coming out of lockdown: the five key areas which

Infections

Daily positive cases of coronavirus reported in Northern Ireland have been largely falling in recent weeks and months. Back in January, after restrictions were eased over Christmas, there was a surge in new cases. The seven-day rolling average of new infections peaked at around 1,800 on January 1. This has steadily declined since then, with the latest data showing the seven-day rolling average on March 10 was 187.

This figure is, however, still significantly higher when compared to the same period last year when lockdown was first imposed.

R-rate

The R-rate is the reproductive rate of the virus. It is estimated that Covid-19 would have an R-rateofaroundthreeifnoaction was taken to stop it spreading.

According to the latest data from the Department of Health (DOH), the R-rate in Northern Ireland is currently between 0.75 and 0.95. The R-rate for hospital admissions is estimated to be around 0.65 to 0.95, however it is slightly higher for intensive care occupancy — between 0.80 and 1.20. Looking back at the R-rate at the start of the pandemic, we can see how the current reproductive rate of Covid is now significantly lower. In March 2020, the rate was around 2.5.

Hospitals

Less than two weeks before Christmas, the chief executives of our six health trusts issued a joint statement warning of “unbearable pressures” facing the system in the event of a likely Covid surge at the start of January.

At this point, several hospitals here were already operating beyond capacity. While a spike did hit in January, the healthcare system managed to cope with the pressures and hospital admissions began to fall gradually.

As of March 14, there were 182 Covid patients in hospitals across Northern Ireland. At its peak in January, this figure was 1,051. In mid-march last year, there were around 30 Covid patients in our hospitals.

A similar decline has been seen in intensive care units. There are currently 22 Covid patients in ICU, compared with 74 during January’s peak and around 30 in March last year. Hospitals in Northern Ireland are now running at 93% occupancy.

‘There are currently 22 Covid patients in ICU’