Parents are delighted, but logic of move appears fuzzy
THE Executive’s announcement was welcomed with a sigh of relief by parents worried about the impact of lockdown on children.
It seems somewhat curious the announcement was made yesterday. When the Executive discussed the return of schools last Thursday, ministers agreed only to reverse the original decision for children in P1 to P3 to revert to home-schooling for a week from March 22. It delayed the decision on the full return of primary children to today.
So, what has changed? The answer, when looking at the data that is so important to the Executive, is very little.
The number of Covid-19 inpatients and patients with the virus in critical care is continuing to fall, while daily case rates remain frustratingly stagnant.
The seven-day positive case rate highlights that the reduction in the number of people catching the virus is slowing down.
Last Thursday, the seven-day positive case rate was 1,277, while the seven-day case rate per 100,000 of the population between March 4 and 10 was 67.9.
On Tuesday, the seven-day positive case rate was 1,208, while the seven-day case rate per 100,000 of the population between March 9 and 15 was 64.2.
According to QUB virologist Dr Connor Bamford, the rate proves lockdown is no longer working. He described as “concerning” the fact the number of new cases has plateaued.
“I think it shows that the restrictions aren’t really working and that’s essentially being driven by people not following the required social distancing,” he said. “It could be because they have to go to work on the bus. It’s not that they are making choices not to follow regulations.”
Regardless, the fact is that Northern Ireland is sitting in a position where between 100 and 200 people are being diagnosed with every day while society is coming out of lockdown.
Earlier this week, chief medical officer Dr Michael Mcbride said we were “far from out the other side of this yet”.
The Executive has made its decision regarding primary school children returning to school, but it is clear from Dr Mcbride’s comments that nothing is set in stone when it comes to learning to live with Covid-19.