Majority believe Scots leaving UK will spark border poll here

But survey finds public split on whether Brexit will make any difference to unity debate

ALMOST half of people in Northern Ireland believe Scottish independence will prompt a referendum on a united Ireland, an exclusive new poll has found.

Polling by Focaldata for HOPE not hate found that 44% of people in Northern Ireland thought that Scottish independence would make a referendum on the region leaving the UK more likely, with just 33% disagreeing.

This year’s report by the anti-fascist and anti-racist organisation has been extended to cover Northern Ireland post-brexit with detailed polling on people’s hopes and fears for the future now that the UK has left the EU.

There is also an overview of key developments within loyalist paramilitaries over the last year.

The HOPE not hate poll found that opinion is split on whether Brexit makes a united Ireland more likely, with 44% believing it does, while 18% think it is less likely. Some 26% say it will not make any difference.

However, a game changer could be if the SNP wins May’s Scottish elections and moves towards independence.

Elsewhere, 63% of people in Northern Ireland say they are opposed to the Brexit plans as they now stand while 69% say the EU Withdrawal is going to be bad for the region.

Opinion is evenly divided among those who voted Leave in the 2016 EU Referendum and those who voted DUP in the last general election in 2019.

Only 52% of Leave voters think Brexit is going to be good for Northern Ireland, with 48% thinking it will be bad.

Among DUP voters, 49% think it is going to be good while 51% believe it will be bad.

A majority of Catholics (56%) think Brexit makes a united Ireland more likely, compared to just 31% of Protestants.

Almost two in five voters (38%) think Brexit is likely to lead to “a new constitutional arrangement on the island of Ireland (eg a federal North and South)”.

The poll also shows there is growing ambivalence among the English towards a possible breakup of the UK, including amongst Conservative voters.

When asked about the possibility of Northern Ireland leaving the UK and joining together with the Republic, only 28% said that they would be unhappy.

A quarter (26%) said they would be happy, with 40% claiming to be indifferent.

Worryingly, 10% of people said that they would be happy if “loyalists in Northern Ireland start a campaign of violence in order to prevent a United Ireland”.

It comes just weeks after loyalist paramilitary groups informed the British and Irish governments that they were withdrawing their support for the Agreement in protest at Northern Ireland’s Irish Sea trade border with the rest of the UK.

Age appears to be a key factor in those who claim to be happy with this outcome, with 23% of younger people — who will not remember the Troubles — being happy, compared to just 2% of those aged 65 and over.

The poll found that support for the Good Friday Agreement remains fairly strong in Northern Ireland, although most people think it is not perfect.

A quarter of survey respondents (24%) said the Agreement is maintaining peace and stability and is working well, while 40% believe “it is not perfect but it is better we have it than not”.

A further 15% would like the deal to be renegotiated but only 9% want it abolished altogether.

The support for the Agreement amongst Catholics remains strong, with 78% being supportive, broken down into 35% believing that it is working well and 43% expressing the view that it is not perfect but it is better that it is there than not.

The opinion amongst Protestants is more divided.

Only 12% think it is working well, while 40% say it is not perfect but it is better it is there than not — still a majority of 52% accepting the importance of maintaining the Agreement.

A fifth of Protestants (22%) believe that the Agreement should be renegotiated and 14% want it abolished altogether; three times the number of Catholics who hold the same view.

Nick Lowles, chief executive of HOPE not hate, said: “Everyone knows that Northern Ireland faces an uncertain future, grappling with the pandemic and its aftermath in a new post-eu environment.

“The widespread opposition to the new Brexit protocol and pessimism about Northern Ireland’s prospects outside of the EU means that some question its future within the UK.

“But the majority still support the Good Friday Agreement, even if some have reservations, and so it’s vital that at this stress point, engagement across communities and shared space for dialogue is valued.”

‘Opposition to the Brexit protocol and pessimism over NI’S prospects outside of the EU means that some question its future within the UK’