‘The real danger is that no one is listening to us’
Allison Morris meets loyalist leaders:
WHILE the potential threat from dissident republicans was often raised during the three years of Brexit negotiations, little consideration was given to how loyalists would react to what they perceive to be a betrayal of their sovereignty with a customs border in the Irish Sea.
Represented by the Loyalist Communities Council, the UVF, UDA and Red Hand Commando, withdrew support for the Good Friday Agreement earlier this month, in a protest letter sent to Boris Johnson.
There is noticeable anger among unionists and loyalists of many shades, but 23 years after the historic peace accord and almost 27 years after the Combined Loyalist Military Command called a cessation of violence, what threat, if any, do the loyalist paramilitary groups pose to peace?
Pete Shirlow, director of the Institute for Irish Studies at Liverpool University, who has worked extensively with loyalist groups, thinks wise heads will prevail.
“This is not 1968, that world just doesn’t exist anymore, the wiser heads know anything like violence or taking people on to the streets just marches us closer to a united Ireland, they know that, they understand that.
“Many of the leadership are now later on in years, but if they didn’t have control of the younger members, we would have seen much bigger flag protests, or retaliation for dissident attacks. You are not going to get rid of the Protocol and that’s finally starting to sink in.”
That’s a very different take to that of the Rev Mervyn Gibson.
A former member of the RUC and a senior member of the Orange Order, he is a man known to have an ear to the ground in working-class loyalist communities.
“I think things are getting worse by the day as people realise the reality of what the Protocol means. Even looking at it from a human rights point of view, the right to democracy, many of our trade laws and even our health service will be determined by Europe in terms of what drugs are available to treat people. That should be unacceptable to everyone.
“Anger is growing, but the real danger is that no one is listening.”
Often missing in the debate around loyalist reaction to political developments is the voice of women. In what is still a patriarchal society, Stacey Graham, from the Shankill area of Belfast, is one of the few female voices willing to speak out on behalf of her community.
In December 2019, the Progressive Unionist Party member took to the stage of the Ulster Hall at a Preserve the Union event aimed at voicing opposition to Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal.
“The flag protests were never about a flag”, she says. “It was about a build-up of tensions left behind from the Good Friday Agreement. The Shankill Road has not seen the benefits of peace, whereas middle-class areas have. People are disenfranchised, left out in the wilderness. Nothing has changed for
‘You are not going to get rid of the Protocol and that’s starting to sink in’ Rev Mervyn Gibson
us, the poverty, the educational underachievement, mental health, which is getting worse, unresolved legacy. People find it difficult to express their feelings so they’ve literally put their views on the walls.
“When we talk about the hard border, the EU, the nationalist parties all said they wouldn’t accept it, but when unionists say the same thing about a sea border, well we are treated differently and that’s why people are angry.”
Loyalist Jamie Bryson says it goes deeper than just the Protocol, to the heart of the Good Friday Agreement.
“It illuminates the stark reality that the agreement is a millstone around the neck of the Union, and in my view unionism’s position will never improve until that is remedied,” he says.
“Unionism and loyalism must collectively come to the rational and logical conclusion that you cannot be pro-agreement and pro-union, because the agreement’s very objective is the incremental destruction of the Union.”
Jim Wilson is a former Red Hand Commando prisoner and member of the LCC. Of the older generation, he is keen for there to be no return to violence.
“Personally, I just hope, as someone who came through the conflict, that we never go back there, we need to work in the political arena and put pressure on the British Government to see the folly of their actions,” he says.
“I want our young lads to know violence isn’t the answer. The biggest problem is, over the last number of years, the threat of violence seems to win the day.
“When Bertie Ahern met with us years ago, I felt him to be an honest person. We told him we felt the Irish government were the enemies of Ulster, but they made strides putting the hands of friendship out to the loyalist community. Leo Varadkar with one fell swoop has managed to destroy all that work.”
But what threat, if any, do the three main paramilitary groups pose?
No longer structured under a collective command, feuds, leadership battles and a cult of egos has seen many groups fracture into smaller organisations, run like mini-fiefdoms by a local leadership.
During the Troubles, the deadliest UDA unit, in southeast Antrim, murdered hundreds of people.
It is now a criminal cartel, heavily involved in drug-dealing, extortion, intimidation and murder of members of their own community.
However, it poses little threat to national security, with southeast Antrim UDA’S only purpose now that of a money-making criminal gang.
The West Belfast UDA, once lead by cult-like figure Johnny Adair, remains one of the most heavily armed units of the loyalist paramilitary organisation and is believed to still retain around 2,000 members.
While Adair now lives in forced exile in Scotland, the core leadership of the group which presided over the campaign of terror in the late 80s and early 90s remains in place.
They are venomously opposed to the Northern Ireland Protocol and openly displayed this in October 2019, when in a rare show of unity, those alleged to hold leadership positions attended a “betrayal act” meeting at an east Belfast social club.
The North Antrim UDA never supported the Good Friday Agreement — their prisoners voted against the peace deal and were prepared to remain in jail rather than back the 1998 treaty.
The organisation’s decommissioning was seen as a “symbolic” gesture and they retained much of their arsenal.
Recently, there has been an escalation in activity by the North Antrim UDA, with shootings and pipe-bombing incidents in Coleraine and Ballymoney, including the attempted murder of grandmother Sally Cummings. They could pose a potential threat to peace and have shown themselves to have access to weapons.
The East Belfast UDA also retains around 2,000 members, stretching geographically from the east of the city to Newtownards and North Down.
They have been involved in peace-building projects and would have been considered committed to peace, but there have been rumblings of unrest recently and, while they may not pose any major threat to national security, they could be mobilised to cause public disorder and unrest.
The South Belfast UDA is the only area fully committed to peace. Under the alleged leadership of Jackie Mcdonald, they are heavily involved in community initiatives and the faction of the organisation least likely to pose any future threat.
Speaking to the Belfast Telegraph, a senior UDA member said: “The older generation, the leadership who would be aged 60 or 70, wouldn’t really be in step with younger loyalists. If the Protocol doesn’t go, if politics fails us again, what will we do? New targets being talked about are EU and Irish nationalist targets.
“We are at a crossroads, younger members see this as all part of an agenda, an inevitable road to unity.”
The Red Hand Commando did not continue to recruit after the ceasefires. It is currently an “old boys’ club” of men with no desire for a return to violence.
The UVF does have an overall leader, in place since the 1970s, who commands the respect of all areas, including the hardline East Belfast faction.
While publicly supportive of the peace process, a senior UVF source said they still believe “if it was necessary”, he would take the organisation back onto a more militant footing.
The main concern of security sources is that, once the leadership “retires”, the organisation may fracture in a similar way to the UDA. The most heavily armed and militant faction of the organisation is the East Belfast, thought to have between 1,500-2,000 men.
Other hardline areas include Mid-ulster and South Belfast, both of which have been prominent in erecting various anti-sea border murals and banners with threatening, militant messages.
The organisation retains a significant cache of weapons from its share of a South African shipment brought into Northern Ireland in the late 1980s.
While many were later seized, Ulster Resistance retained almost all of its share of the weapons, which could be made available to loyalists if they sought a return to violence.
A senior UVF source told the Belfast Telegraph: “Loyalism is split into hawks and doves. While there is growing frustration across the organisation in relation to the Irish Sea border, this has not resulted in any genuine will to go back to a conflict situation, but the momentum is swinging. Low-level violent actions are almost inevitable. There is a danger that this could then spiral.”
‘Younger members see this as all part of an agenda’