Stormont in solo run as it alone follows Sage advice on lockdown
THE Executive is sticking to advice from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) by refusing to provide dates for relaxing Covid-19 restrictions, it can be revealed.
Local politicians have come under fire after producing an exit strategy without indicative dates while the rest of the UK has provided timetables for easing lockdown.
However, minutes from a meeting of Sage show some of the UK’S top scientists and officials believe it is preferable to avoid “predetermined dates”.
The meeting was attended by Dr Declan Bradley, Stormont’s deputy chief scientific adviser. He is attending meetings of the body in place of chief scientific adviser Professor Ian Young, who is on sick leave.
The minutes from the meeting on February 4, the most recent to be made public, suggest Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and her Welsh counterpart Mark Drakeford have chosen to ignore Sage advice on the issue.
“As there are many uncertainties, changes to measures are best made based on epidemiological data rather than at predetermined dates,” the paper said.
“This makes it more likely that the epidemic can be kept under control. If there is an increase in transmission, it will take time for the data to show this, and then more time for any response to be implemented and then have an effect. Gradual relaxation would make it easier to monitor and assess the impact of changes.”
It came as Northern Ireland did not record any Covid-19 deaths yesterday for the third day in a row. There were 181 positive tests, and six care homes were dealing with an active outbreak.
The falling number of cases and deaths has led to calls for an accelerated exit from lockdown.
However, the minutes reveal Sage recommends the relaxation of restrictions happens over a six to nine-month period.
It warns lifting measures any quicker has the potential to result in a worse surge than in January.
The document said: “Modelling indicates that relaxation of measures over six or nine months results in much smaller subsequent epidemic waves than relaxing measures over three months.
“Relaxation of a significant number of restrictions over three months starting from the beginning of April could lead to hospital occupancy higher than the January peak whereas relaxation over nine months would result in a much smaller peak.”
The minutes also warn “retaining a baseline set of measures to reduce transmission even after other restrictions have been lifted would also reduce the scale of a resurgence” and these and “potentially additional measures” may be needed throughout winter and into the start of 2022.
The Executive has come under pressure to provide clarity over its plans for exiting lockdown, with the business community in particular calling for indicative dates for reopening various sectors to help with planning. England, Scotland and Wales have all produced timelines, whereas politicians here have only announced dates for a limited number of relaxations, including the return of all pupils to school, although this is due for review next week.
According to the minutes, Sage also considered the introduction of immunity certificates.
The committee examined the length of immunity in different circumstances and said natural infection provides against reinfection for around seven out of 10 people for a period of at least five to six months, while immunisation with a single dose of Astrazeneca provides protection against infection for around seven out of 10 people for at least 90 days.
Immunity certificates could “enable the relaxation of certain measures”, but should not result in people not self-isolating if symptoms develop.