Phoneywarisover, now it’s time for the real battle for the Dáil to begin

LAST week’s four by- election contests have offered up an interesting preview of what we can expect when the country goes to the polls next year. While the exact date of the General Election remains unclear, it is almost certain that by next June there will be a new Government in the Dáil.

Whether that administration is led by Leo Varadkar or Micheál Martin is now the question that is occupying many minds in and around Leinster House.

Just a few years ago, with Leo Varadkar riding high in the polls, the notion that Micheál Martin would be the only Fianna Fáil leader to never lead the nation had considerable traction.

Right now – with the General Election campaign effectively underway – things are looking very different.

Last September at the Fianna Fáil party think-in, Mr Martin said he hopes to be Taoiseach within the next five years but the way things are looking he could be in Leo Varadkar’s seat far sooner than that.

Last week’s by-elections are by no means a disaster for Fine Gael – sitting Governments almost always fare badly in such contests – but the results will be a cause for concern in Fine Gael headquarters.

The most recent national opinion polls show Fine Gael ahead of Fianna Fáil by between two and six per cent. Taking a typical three point margin of error into account that suggests the General Election race will be a tight one.

However, while such polls are useful they often don’t reflect the political realities of individual constituencies. In recent months numerous informed sources have pointed to around a dozen constituencies where – despite what national polls claim – Fianna Fáil has a very good chance of taking Fine Gael seats.

Given that only three seats separate the parties in the Dáil, such a result, or anything remotely like it, would completely swing the balance of power towards Mr Martin.

Though he wouldn’t be close to a majority he would hold most, if not all of the cards, when it comes to any post election horse trading.

Add to that Mr Varadkar’s decidedly frosty relationship with the Labour and Green Party leadership and Fianna Fáil has another advantage when coalition negotiations kick off.

A real worry for Fine Gael will be how few transfers the party picked up in last week’s ballot.

If that were to be repeated in those 12 key battlegrounds it could be a perfect storm for Fine Gael and lead to a disastrous day at the office for Mr Varadkar.

There is some solace for Fine Gael in the fact that turnout was so low with just a third of voters making their way to their polling station, one ballot box in Cork was actually empty.

When the General Election rolls around, Fine Gael will be hoping that the turnout is far greater and an electorate of less doggedly anti government voters will be more forgiving.

It’s still all to play for but Michael Martin could be forgiven for feeling more confident about the hand he has been dealt.