Leadership races mean interesting times ahead

SO far it’s been a summer of political heaves, speculation and nominations – both here and abroad – and it’s sure to get even more interesting once the political merry-go-round starts up in the autumn. Stateside, the battle lines are well and truly drawn as Hillary Clinton was finally rubber stamped to take on Donald Trump. We can now expect a race to the White House filled with dirty tricks and Machiavellian schemes, if the recent Republican and Democrat leadership campaigns are anything to go by.

Meanwhile, our neighbours in the UK have, to some extent, stabilised their leadership issues and last month new Prime Minister Theresa May hit the ground running with a robust opening exchange in the House of Commons. Likewise, her cross-party rival, Jeremy Corbyn, has managed to buy himself some time as Labour leader

Last week, May met with Taoiseach Enda Kenny at Downing Street to discuss the fall out of Brexit and the likely ramifications of a potential ‘ hard border’ with the North. But back home the tremors of change continue to be felt by Mr Kenny as he looks to keep the long grass well and truly cut in Fine Gael.

He knows he’s on borrowed time and with Leo Varadkar taking a short lead with the bookies – moving well ahead of co-runners, Simon Coveney and Frances Fitzgerald – the sparks are set to fly sometime soon. While there’s speculation that a new leader could be in place after the next budget but before the end of the year, the smart money is on a new Fine Gael leader sometime in 2017.

Likewise, in Sinn Fein speculation mounts over whether or not Gerry Adams should step down. He may have 33 years under his belt as leader but ever since Cavan Sinn Fein cumann chairman, Tommy McNulty, suggested Adams should resign, the wagons have been circled in the party leader’s defence. But have they formed as tightly as in previous occasions? The combination of a northern republican calling for Adam’s resignation in a northern, nationalist-leaning newspaper – The Irish News – would have been unimaginable just a few short years ago.

And last weekend Mary Lou McDonald allowed a national newspaper reporter a two-day ‘meet and greet’ which could be deemed a sign that she may be primed to take over.

Gerry Adams and Enda Kenny will not receive Shakespearian endings to their reign, of that there can be no doubt. Kenny took Fine Gael to its greatest ever political victory and, while he failed to win voters’ confidence last time out, there is still widespread respect amongst the party faithful who admire how he took over a party that was on the floor back in 2002.

Similarly, Adams’ Sinn Fein journey has seen a phenomenal rise from political outsider to statesman.

But even Rome fell and Sinn Fein and Fine Gael supporters now face the dilemma of loyalty versus progression. Both party leaders are also, to some extent, victims of Fianna Fail’s new-found success and Micheál Martin can simply sit back and smile.

Bookies are seldom wrong and with Mary Lou McDonald and Leo Varadkar the red-hot favourites to succeed their leaders, it’s seems only a question of when, not if.

In the meantime the odds are much tighter in the United States and the political merry-go round will certainly keep us entertained as we wait.