Buckle in, it is going to be a messy election ride
SO now we know. Well, sort of. After weeks of speculation, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has finally, well almost, called an election. Sunday’s radio interview in which he declared that he has made his mind up on the date for the election and will reveal all following some last-minute house keeping is effectively the Taoiseach firing the starting gun for Election 2020.
We should know later this week whether it is February 7 or February 14 for polling day. If the headline writers of Ireland get their wish it will be a St Valentine’s Day election, with an influx of ‘St Valentine’s Day Massacre/Love is in the Air for (insert party here)’ articles over the coming weeks.
Fine Gael are putting a brave, almost bullish face on, declaring they are match fit and ready for the campaign trail. In truth, if Leo had his way, we would be having this election post the Easter holidays. But the dynamics of the Dáil have shifted in recent weeks, and the Taoiseach ran out of options. It simply has to be February now.
For Fine Gael, it makes the party’s own goal over the RIC commemoration all the more galling. To have such a political blunder so close to polling day is downright reckless.
It doesn’t matter if the party was trying (badly, admittedly) to do the right thing and be as inclusive as possible with their commemoration. It doesn’t matter that this is the type of situation a United Ireland would have to confront with a great deal more maturity than it did last week.
To many, Fine Gael are now the party that wanted to commemorate the Black and Tans. It doesn’t matter that this assumption is wrong, the seed has been sown. (The only positive to come out of this sorry mess is the decision of the Wolfe Tones to donate all proceeds from their chart-topping ‘Come Out Ye Black & Tans’ to the Peter McVerry Trust).
Fine Gael will spend the next three weeks reminding voters of their strong performance on the economy and Brexit. Fianna Fáil will hit back and hammer them on housing and health. But who will land the knock-out blow is anyone’s guess.
Fine Gael will also be anxious to convince the electorate that they should be the party of choice when it comes to climate action.
They will be conscious that a surge in support for the Green Party is a very real possibility, with such an outcome likely to do them damage in Dublin.
But their track record on climate issues has been mixed. Plenty of promises, not a lot of action. It doesn’t help when you have a Fine Gael Minister of State, John Paul Phelan, referring to some within the Green Party as ‘nutters’ last Saturday night.
Not exactly Ministerial language, but maybe we should forgive the Kilkenny TD. After all, his party is in the middle of a break-up with their partner of the last three and a bit years – Fianna Fáil. The confidence and supply arrangement was always going to end in tears, and like all break-ups, this could prove to be messy.
And with no real clear outcome on the cards for this election, 2020 could be the messiest of years. A second election before the year is out is a genuine possibility, as the make-up of the next government is likely to be equally as precarious as this one.