Glimmers of hope show there is light at the end of the lockdown tunnel

AFTER what seems like weeks of non stop bad news there are, at last, some signs for hope in Ireland’s war against the Coronavirus. The struggle is set to go on for some time – likely for many months – but figures emerging last week suggest that the country has turned a corner in its COVID-19 fight.

The tragic death toll continues to rise with every passing day and scores of new cases are still being diagnosed every hour but there are now clear signs that the virus’ deadly grip on Ireland may be slipping.

After rising inexorably for weeks, the rate of new cases has begun to plateau while the person to person transmission rates – a key measure that will be a major factor when the Government’ decides its next steps – are approaching manageable levels.

There is still a very long way to go – and the journey will be hard – but for the first time since this historic crisis engulfed Ireland there are genuine reasons for optimism.

One of the main ones arrives in the form of Ireland’s R0 number, that latest in the long line of virus related buzzwords that were utterly alien to us just a few short weeks ago.

Much like ‘flattening the curve’ and ‘social distancing’, you can expect to hear a lot about this vital number on the coming weeks and months key, as it will be, to the long awaited end of the great lockdown.

For those not in the know an R0 or ‘R-zero’ number describes an infections level of contagion by measuring how many people an infected person is likely to pass it on to.

As of last week, Ireland’s R0 number lay somewhere between 0.7 and one – down from around five at the outbreak of the crisis in Ireland – meaning that in most cases anyone infected with COVID-19 here was only likely to infect one more person.

That may still seem high but an R0 number of less than one is generally seen as a sign that an infection is, largely speaking, contained and its growth rate drastically curtailed.

More importantly, it means the health service should be able to cope with it.

That Ireland’s R0 number has been brought from five or more to below one clearly shows that the lockdown and social distancing measures introduced here have worked.

The focus now must be on maintaining that R0 number and keeping the virus under control while gradually preparing to reopen the country.

This will not be easy and it will not be quick – only a fool should expect life to get back to normal in early May – but it can be done.

It was very encouraging in recent days to see the Government addressing the eventual end of the lockdown and how that can be achieved.

After weeks locked in their homes, many people were beginning to despair of ever seeing a semblance of normality return. No one expected the Government to give a date for the end of the lockdown – that’s impossible – but to at least know they are working towards it is very encouraging.

Until then all we can do is stay the course.