ENGLAND’S PACE HARD TO HANDLE
THE thing I love most about Eddie Jones is that he will never die wondering, nor will his teams ever fail for lack of endeavour. He gives everything the full monty, always look for the attacking, positive option, and if that’s not good enough, well, that’s sport.
Make no mistake: England could lose in Dublin today and the world record could go begging. Ireland are a very good side playing middling rugby, but in front of their own fans and with personal pride at stake, they could suddenly click into top gear and they are formidable when that happens.
Just ask New Zealand how good Ireland can be when the force is with them.
But to have any chance of beating England, Ireland will have to play supremely well and score at least four tries. In the biggest match of his reign, Eddie has increased England’s attacking options even further by starting Anthony Watson ahead of Jack Nowell. I greatly admire the Exeter wing but if England want to go for the jugular, Watson is the bigger try-scoring threat.
Some coaches might look at England’s backline and highlight possible defensive frailties. That’s the glass-half-full approach. But I look at it and think how on earth do you stop them if they get the ball. Contrast this approach and this potent backline with another must-win England game of recent memory — Wales at the last World Cup — when England’s midfield three read Owen Farrell, Sam Burgess and Brad Barritt, a backline built to stop the opposition scoring.
Irony of ironies, Ireland defence coach Andy Farrell — in my opinion the greatest English rugby league player of the lot — would’ve had a huge input into the selection of that England backline in 2015. Possibly too much. I valued Phil Larder immensely in my England setup and trusted him to organise my defence, but only after I had selected the attacking backline I wanted on the pitch.
Today Andy Farrell has to organise a defensive set-up to counter the England back division that they should have been fielding throughout that World Cup. It’s a delicious little sub-plot to what should be a fantastic occasion. In one way the scenario tonight is very simple. If the England pack get on the front foot and are allowed to play at pace, they will win. But if the Ireland pack has a massive day, it becomes a onescore game and a real nail-biter.
England on the front foot have the potential to destroy teams. I was watching the Scotland match again the other night and one of the biggest changes under Eddie is the tempo and speed they play at. England are unrecognisable from the heavy-duty approach under Stuart Lancaster. By pace, I don’t just mean sheer speed — although England have plenty of that as well. I mean pace of execution. When England get that forward dominance, George Ford is the best fly-half in Europe, with a range of pass and sublime timing under pressure, flat to the line, that nobody else can match. And when he works in tandem with Owen Farrell, the sky is the limit for England. But when England are under pressure, when their forward dominance is disrupted, Ford is not so dangerous and that’s why Johnny Sexton is still, just, the first choice for the Lions. Sexton is better on the back foot but it’s very close between these two. We have probably got the three Lions fly-halves on the park today. Finn Russell and Dan Biggar have dropped away a little, leaving Sexton, Ford and Farrell. The latter is the Lions No.12 in-waiting. For Ireland the loss of Conor Murray is huge. Murray has been the key to Ireland’s best games in recent years. He has an arrogant strut in the best very sense — that confidence in his own ability that marks out the great players — and he knows just when to strike. He is arguably Ireland’s most dangerous attacker in his own right, but the great thing about Murray is that defences are so busy keeping an eye on him that it gives Sexton just a little more time to work his magic. That extra yard of space is vital and the moment Murray came off against Wales last week, Ireland began to look a little frantic. With Murray off the pitch, Wales could concentrate fully on Sexton. Everything seems to be going England’s way but that’s when Ireland can be at their most dangerous. I’ve been in Dublin since Thursday lapping it all up. The build-up and atmosphere has been fantastic, but as an old England player and coach, I can still feel the butterflies in my stomach. Outside of World Cup matches they don’t come much bigger than this. It’s so close to call and with so much at stake I’m going for England to win by one point.