Think-ins used to be about ideas. But not with these leaders...
NOW that the phoney ‘think-in’ season has come to an end, it’s back down to business for our national elected representatives. Once, the think-ins were really what they said on the tin: a space away from the glare of Leinster House, constituents, and the media, whereby colleagues could get to know each other better, let their hair down together and even find time to discuss policy and election planning.
Inspirational guest speakers were invited along to give a pep talk so that the troops would go away re-energised for the new political term.
After a few years, the powersthat-be in the major political parties decided that they couldn’t let the opportunity go by without allowing the media cover sections of the gathering.
This, in turn, morphed the away days into set-pieces and mini-ard fheiseanna, much to the annoyance of those in the parliamentary party who had no chance of getting any publicity out of the event. Ministers and leading spokespersons were pushed out front depending on the theme of the conference. Everyone else merely became fodder. Unless individual members became the focus of some controversy at that time – then, of course, they got their 15 minutes of glory or, indeed, ignominy, depending on the issue.
Initially, the media were only given limited access to some sessions, which meant that they were hanging around, clicking their heels, trying to pick up any little titbits of information to justify their journey to the meeting.
Over time, the party handlers gave more and more direct access to the meeting to such an extent that nowadays, it seems that it is open season for the media at these events.
I note that at the recent Fine Gael gathering Taoiseach Leo Varadkar delivered his keynote speech to his troops with all the media present – something which is a first.
SO these party gatherings, ahead of a new political session are now no more than promotional opportunities for the party, and for some of its leading lights, to announce to the world all that they intend to do – rather than a chance for the ordinary member to interact with the party leaders in a way that’s not possible normally when Leinster House is in session.
We have not been made any the wiser by any of the recent pronouncements at the respective conferences as to how some of the ills in our society, such as the housing crisis or the health service problems, will be solved.
Instead, we have the usual shadow-boxing between the parties as to where any budgetary leeway should be focused.
For instance, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil representatives are doing battle over the airwaves on the question of tax cuts versus Universal Social Charge cuts. Fine Gael is continuing its complete U-turn on its promise to abolish entirely the hated USC by favouring income tax cuts over significant cuts in USC, whereas Fianna Fáil is insisting that cuts should be focused on the USC.
Despite this virtual battle, I have no doubt they both will come to some compromise. Given that there is a relatively small amount to go around, no matter what they do it will not satisfy most members of the public.
They will hardly notice any change in their take-home pay one way or the other, as a result of next month’s Budget.
What might just be of more importance to them is the refund of up to €325 from Irish Water which, apparently, will drop into their bank accounts just in time for the Christmas period.
While this payment is merely giving people back their own money, I wouldn’t underestimate the political capital that will be gained for the different elements of the Government in this process. Tha tpayment will be sent to more than 900,000 households, all at the same time, and will do Fine Gael and its allies no harm at all.
This will undoubtedly give Fine Gael yet another boost in the polls to add to the obvious ‘Leo bounce’, which it has enjoyed over the summer months.
Some commentators have suggested that Fine Gael does not have the look of a party that is ready for an election.
Somehow, I doubt that. Fine Gael members will appreciate that this goodwill will only last so long and that there is only one way to go, and that is downwards.
I would hazard a guess that both major parties have in mind Harold Macmillan’s reply when he was asked what blows governments off course: ‘Events, dear boy, events.’
In other words, both major parties are ready for any eventuality, which in politics can happen out of the blue.
Despite the good portents and all the soft-focus attention on Varadkar over the last while, it will be down to the hard slog as the nights close in. The housing and health situations can only get worse over the winter months.
THESE issues will become a touchstone for negativity against the ‘all-spinning’ Leo and his entourage. Fianna Fáil has homed in on housing and health, knowing full well that politically these issues could turn out to be the Government’s Achilles heel. We can expect much focus on these issues over the next months.
The political battle between Varadkar and Micheál Martin for the hearts and minds of the middle ground will most likely determine who leads the government after the next election. Their jousting will be the main highlight of the coming months.
The budgetary forecast for the next few years is rosy, so whoever becomes taoiseach after the next election will have extra resources to help solidify their party’s position thereafter.
In the coming months, the onus will be on Varadkar to show there is more to him than photo opportunities, and soft-focus interviews.
Undoubtedly this will be Micheál Martin’s last chance to become taoiseach.
He will be hoping that he has built up good political credibility by ‘doing the right thing’ after the last election, whereby he stepped aside and allowed the Fine Gaelled minority government take the reins of power in extremely inconclusive political circumstances.
However, over the coming months he will have to demonstrate he is a much safer pair of hands than the relatively untried Mr Varadkar.
Expect fireworks between the two. A lot will be at stake for both of them in the coming months.