Aussie flu will have devastating impact here, doctors warn
THE so-called ‘Aussie flu’ will have a devastating impact when it hits Ireland this winter, GPs have warned.
An outbreak of the ‘h3n2’ strain of influenza gave rise to the worst flu season on record in Australia this year, affecting more than 100,000 people – two-and-ahalf times the typical recorded amount.
This strain of flu is particularly dangerous for the elderly and children, and experts have warned it is likely to arrive here.
The NHS has anticipated its arrival in the UK by launching a contingency plan – but the HSE has yet to put in place similar emergency measures.
Dr Chris Goodey, chairperson of the National Association of General Practitioners, said his organisation is ‘concerned about this flu and the potential impact it could have on the health service this winter’.
Dr Goodey said that due to funding cuts, GPs no longer have the resources to make Concern: Dr Chris Goodey house calls to vulnerable and elderly patients to ensure they are vaccinated. This, he said, will drive up flu numbers and hospital admissions.
‘That’s going to have a devastating impact if something like the Aussie flu does hit here,’ he said. ‘We already know that our emergency departments are beyond creaking, so I’m sure it’s going to have a major, major impact on the whole health system.’
Health researcher Dr Robert O’Connor said it would be ‘foolish not to be concerned’ about Aussie flu’s arrival.
He said: ‘Our health system is under significant strain at the minute and on a good day there are extensive waits for A&E, etc. These waits now regularly mean that elective procedures are postponed. The flu situation adds to those challenges.’
Dr O’Connor said that in the winter months, weather and other circulating infections ‘increase serious illness and death rates, especially among the elderly’. Detailing the potential impact in Ireland, he added: ‘If flu establishes itself, people become sick and that impacts hospitals.
‘If medical staff contract flu in reasonable numbers, they have to take time off work – further adding strain.’
Writing in yesterday’s Irish Times, Dr Muiris Houston – a practising GP and occupational physician – warned that the health system will experience a ‘slow collapse’ this winter upon the arrival of the Aussie flu.
Dr Houston also warned that the flu vaccination being administered in Ireland this year may be ineffective against this specific strain of influenza, as reported by the Irish Daily Mail last month.
Dr O’Connor echoed these sentiments, saying the ‘dominant flu strain in Australia is not well covered by the current vaccine’. He explained: ‘It’s very difficult to predict 100% of the time which strains will dominate 18 months into the future, and generate the appropriate vaccine.’
Responding to a query about the effectiveness of the vaccine against the Aussie flu, a spokesperson for the HSE said: ‘It is only when influenza viruses are circulating that we can determine whether circulating flu strains match the 2017/2018 northern hemisphere flu vaccine.
‘Influenza vaccine effectiveness data is usually not available at European or global level until mid-to-late season.
‘In general, a vaccine effectiveness of approximately 4060% has been estimated for the three different influenza A (H1N1, H3N2) and B strains (Victoria or Yamagata lineages)... these are the strains in the current flu vaccine.’
‘Not well covered by current jab’